Fairshake spends $30M to stop Brown – Yet his winning odds just climbed

Crypto super PAC Fairshake is going offensive with Democratic aspirant Sherrod Brown as its first casualty target ahead of the November midterm elections. 

Well, this wasn’t surprising after the CLARITY Act failed a key procedural vote with 50 Democrats pushing against it. The industry was expected to retaliate in kind through its well-oiled lobbying machinery.

However, placing a $30M bet against Brown in the Ohio senatorial race has elicited mixed takes and scrutiny of the industry’s political spending strategy. 

Can Fairshake decampaign Brown again?

As one of the top-ranking Democrats, the industry is worried that a successful bid could place Brown into chairmanship roles on the Senate Finance Committee or the Senate Banking Committee. These two shape financial and economic policy, which extends to crypto. 

To prevent this, Fairshake, crypto’s largest lobby group backed by top players such as Coinbase, a16z, and Ripple, will spend $30M to run negative advertisements against Brown.

For perspective, the industry placed a $40M bet and defeated Brown in the last 2024 elections. Currently, Stand With Crypto (SWC), another lobby backed by Coinbase, rates Brown as “strongly against crypto.” 

In fact, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong noted that SWC has +4M members and that the voice will be heard in the elections. 

The 2024 election proved the importance of the crypto voter. Crypto voters will remember who stepped up and who didn’t.

Could Fairshake defeat Brown again?

Despite its spending power, Fairshake faces a more difficult political environment this time.

Polymarket gave Brown a 64% chance of winning Ohio. His odds climbed 10 points after Fairshake announced its campaign.

Amid the U.S-Iran war and rising cost of living, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to a record low of 32%.

And the Democratic Party is gaining favor. The market placed a 65% chance that it can reclaim control of the Senate and House in the midterm elections. 

Could crypto spending backfire?

In fact, it is this possibility that has some pundits questioning the industry’s strategy of being non-partisan.  

Worse still, Brendan Pedersen of Punchbowl News reported that the crypto spending onslaught partly poisoned the CLARITY Act talks. Republicans thought Democrats would fold to avoid the industry from decampaigning them. 

Yet, they still voted against the bill and were even joined by some Republicans, as Carlson stated. In fact, Armstrong and the industry were also blamed for being too aggressive and partly responsible for the bill’s negotiations. 

Whether the industry’s aggressive non-partisan spending will come back to haunt it if Democrats reclaim control of Congress remains to be seen. 

Final Summary

• Fairshake to bet $30M against Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio senatorial race 
• Analysts questioned the industry’s non-partisan political spending strategy as Democrats were favored to control Congress.