From 2% to 21% – Measuring the altcoin market’s recovery since February’s market crash
Summer is almost here, but where will altcoins go now?
Are altcoins beginning to exhibit strength against the market? An analyst noted in a post on X that the percentage of Binance altcoins above their 200-day moving average has been trending higher.
Recently, the Altcoin Season Index saw a 30% surge in a week, while the altcoin market’s capitalization jumped to February levels. And yet, capital inflows to altcoins have not been sustained. Instead, they are moving to Bitcoin, as evidenced by the rising BTC dominance trends since March.
In a recent report, AMBCrypto found that institutional capital flow into Bitcoin [BTC] was stronger than into Ethereum [ETH]. This indicated greater belief in BTC than in ETH, which did not bode well for altcoins.
One common point from previous altcoin bull runs is that ETH tended to outperform BTC, giving them the green light to run higher.
Despite relatively weaker corporate demand, the two leading crypto assets have posted similar gains since the early February crash. With ETH/BTC trending lower and altcoins witnessing a leverage spike, it remained risky to buy altcoins.
The evidence in favor of an altcoin season
In a post on X, crypto analyst Darkfost observed that altcoins might be beginning to awaken. The percentage of Binance altcoins above their 200-day moving average has been on the rise, the chart indicated.
In February, only 2% of altcoins were above their 200-day moving averages. Now, this percentage has increased to 21%. It’s a good start, but this metric needs to reach 50%-60% to signal an altseason.
As it stands, these conditions are far from being met.
Make altcoins great again
Remember also that investors seem to prefer holding Bitcoin to even Ethereum. The belief in altcoins seems to have corroded, judging by their price performance. Most altcoins have not been able to muster strong, sustained capital inflows.
In September 2025, the altcoin market cap briefly surpassed the $1.71 trillion high-water mark from the previous cycle’s bull run, but did not go much higher.
The altcoin season showed that last September saw some confidence in altcoins, but it was not sustained.
Right now, although 21% of altcoins may be above their 200DMAs, an altcoin season is not in sight yet.
Final Summary
- Only 2% of altcoins were trading above their 200-day moving average in February, but 21% are above their 200DMAs now.
- Even so, market conditions and capital flows do not favor most altcoins right now.
