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Has Cardano’s rally started? Exploring if ADA will reach $1 this time

2min Read

The price of ADA may experience a dramatic extension to the surprise of many skeptics.

Has Cardano's rally started? Exploring if ADA will reach $1 this time

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  • The low NVT ratio suggested the token had hit its midterm bottom
  • Technical analysis predicted a surge to $0.82 for ADA.

Cardano [ADA] could be on the verge of nailing bears to a coffin, according to signals from the adjusted 90-day NVT ratio. For those unfamiliar, NVT stands for Network Value to Transaction.

A high NVT ratio means that a cryptocurrency has high network value but unimpressive network activity. In seasons like this, investor sentiment is bearish and prices might decline.

However, Cardano’s NVT, obtained from Messari, was -1.23. Low values like this suggest that the transaction volume of the project is growing faster than the market cap.

Cardano's NVT shows a possible price increase for ADA

Source: Messari

ADA prefers a cup with a handle

For ADA, the decline was a bullish signal which could foreshadow a higher value for the token. But AMBCrypto did not find it surprising that the volume outpaced the market cap.

Just recently, we reported how ADA was close to leaving the top 10 after other cryptocurrencies flipped it. However, that might not be the situation anymore.

ADA’s price, at press time, was $0.48. This value was a 2.01% increase in the last 24 hours, thanks to the recovery altcoins had after the Bitcoin [BTC] halving.

When we checked the information on the technical side, we noticed that the NVT signal was valid. On the 4-hour ADA/USD chart, the token had formed a cup and handle pattern between 15 April and 20.

Here, bulls held support at $0.44 and were able to drive the Cardano native token past the $0.47 resistance. With the cup and handle formation, ADA might consolidate for a while.

This potential consolidation was validated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As of this writing, the RSI had turned down from its previous uptrend, indicating that the token was losing the bullish momentum.

However, the 4.236 Fibonacci extension might rise as high as $0.82 in the midterm. First, the price might arrive at $0.76 (the 3.618 Fib level) before it breaks out to surpass the $0.80 psychological resistance.

Cardano analysis reveals that the price may hit $0.82.

Is $1 possible this time?

In the last year, Cardano has not reached the predicted level. As such, hitting the point could open the door for higher value than was last seen in the 2021 bull cycle.

Meanwhile, the total amount of ADA holders remained at 4.47 million at press time. The last time there was a notable increase in the metric was on the 8th of April, when 100,000 new addresses purchased the token.

Read Cardano’s [ADA] Price Prediction 2024-2025

If the holder count stays the way it is over the coming days, then ADA’s price might trade sideways. For the said period, the value could be between $0.46 and $0.51.

Data showing a possible price increase in ADA

Source: TradingView

However, demand for ADA might increase over the next few months. Should this be the case, a $1 to $1 ADA equivalent might be possible. But for the time being, Cardano might remain on the sidelines.


Victor Olanrewaju is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Settled in Lagos, his fascination with blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market arose out of his love of freedom and everything free. As a Nigerian, Victor understands the impact unfounded financial restrictions have on a population. He sees Bitcoin and cryptos as a way to circumvent these obstacles, as a tool for value creation despite all the setbacks. A graduate in Physics, Victor previously worked as a Senior Marketer at Melange Technologies. Before that, he dealt with crypto-marketers on a regular basis in his capacity as Copywriter at Ventrix Media. At AMBCrypto, Victor’s focus is on assessing the real effectiveness of both on-chain and off-chain developments on a project and its community sentiment.
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