Hedera drops 12% – But THIS upgrade could change HBAR’s outlook

Can a mainnet upgrade and rising developer activity bring price up again?

Written by Samyukhtha L KM

Reviewed by Jacob Thomas

Updated 04:00 EST January 13, 2026

Hedera [HBAR] ended the week down 12%, but there’s more to look at.

JPMorgan recently highlighted Hedera as a key example of public‑permissioned DLTs, while Santiment data ranked the network fourth globally for developer activity over the past month.

With a mainnet upgrade scheduled in the coming days, the question remains: will this development impact HBAR’s price?

HBAR pulls back with contained sell pressure

The daily chart showed price slipping after an early January push, with the candles going lower toward the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands. Momentum hasn’t gone into panic mode yet.

RSI was around 44 at press time, so there’s weakness without being oversold. Bearish pressure, too, is easing.

Open Interest has stayed flat near $55 million, so there’s a lack of aggressive position unwinding. Funding rates are slightly positive; traders aren’t heavily betting against the price. It looks like consolidation while waiting for a clear sign.

Hedera back in focus

JPMorgan recently cited Hedera Hashgraph as an example of a public-permissioned network. This is a model that brings open access to operational control, more compatible with enterprise and regulatory needs.

Meanwhile, Santiment data has Hedera on fourth globally for development activity over the past 30 days, along with some of crypto’s most actively built networks.

All eyes on the upgrade

The next immediate test for Hedera comes with its planned mainnet upgrade to v0.69 on the 21st of January. This comes with HBAR’s price in freefall, even with strong developer activity.

For the market, this upgrade will prove Hedera can keep executing smoothly without all the hype and noise.