High FUD, 73% longs – Is Cardano’s $0.50 support hanging by a thread?

• Cardano Futures volatility cuts both ways – Bullish or a risk if conditions worsen
• There is now high FUD as ADA nears pre-election levels

In the ongoing bearish phase, aggressive long positioning remains a high-risk strategy, as volatility continues to flush out overleveraged traders.

Cardano’s [ADA] price action has been reflecting this trend. At press time, ADA was 15.20% down, breaching the critical $0.60 support level. As a result, 60% of traders who were previously long have been wiped out.

Now, de-risking is in full effect, triggering cascading liquidations and further intensifying downside pressure. In such a climate, HODLing sentiment will play a crucial role in defining Cardano’s future trajectory. So, what should you expect next?

Cardano under derivatives pressure

On 6 April, a sharp red candlestick marking a 12.38% intraday move on ADA’s 1D chart aligned with 69.36% long exposure on Binance Futures. Hence, when BTC broke support, ADA followed, triggering a $12.73 million long squeeze.

Now, Open Interest (OI) has dropped 17.73% to $571.36 million, signaling aggressive position unwinding and increasing sell-side liquidity. If unmet by bullish demand, this unwinding could amplify further squeezes.

What are the odds? At the time of writing, Binance Futures’ 12-hour long/short ratio was skewed, with 73.37% of positions still long. Meanwhile, WhiteBIT’s ratio leaned 92% long, adding $16.18 million in directional exposure.

Notably, ADA/USDT perps averaged 65% long throughout March, yet ADA closed the month flat after tapping $1.14 on 2 March. Since then, sustained selling pressure has kept Cardano in a downtrend.

Consequently, with derivatives-driven liquidity mounting and no significant demand stepping in, millions have been wiped out in long liquidations. If this pattern holds, ADA could be on track to revisit pre-election levels.

Investor psychology – Analyzing the FUD factor

At press time, Cardano held a 53% gains from its election day open at $0.33 on 6 November 2024. And yet, with market-wide FUD intensifying, retail investors are more likely to panic sell –  Either to breakeven or secure gains before further compression.

Meanwhile, whales are positioning differently. ‘Buying the FUD’ could validate $0.50 as a strong local bottom. And, given the current setup, the odds might favor accumulation.

Notably, the largest ADA holders (100 million–1 billion ADA) have scooped up 120 million tokens since 6 April – Right after ADA’s sharp 12% drop to $0.55.

Overall, investor sentiment remains divided. If deep-pocketed players keep absorbing sell pressure, a strong bounce from $0.50 could drive ADA back towards $0.58–$0.60 in the near term.

Conversely, with millions in leveraged longs hanging in the balance, a breakdown below $0.50 could fuel liquidation-driven sell-offs. 

All eyes remain on whale positioning – Whether they absorb sell-side liquidity across spot and futures markets will be key to dictating Cardano’s next major move.