HNT’s 19% drop wipes out rally as Helium network losses hit $202K in Q3

Helium [HNT] declined significantly as bears began selling the asset over the past couple of trading sessions in the market.

This 19% decline marks a complete turnaround from the asset’s upside performance that lasted for days, as Helium expanded its products across key areas in Hawaii and Texas.

In addition, the broader product and protocol-level push helped fuel the previous rally, with Helium recently approving Improvement Proposals (HIP) 149 and 150.

The proposals allow individuals who host hardware to earn payments for routing traffic, while Helium distributes the token accordingly.

While strong protocol performance can support an asset’s valuation and sustain bullish sentiment, the current market structure tells a different story and could push HNT even lower.

A structural gap could force the asset lower

The Bollinger Bands indicator shows a tendency for HNT to see further declines beyond what has already been recorded.

The Bollinger Bands use three major levels: the upper band, which marks the overbought region; the middle band, which can act as either a support or resistance level; and the lower band, which can act as a demand zone or oversold region.

The recent decline followed the price trading into the overbought territory, forcing the asset lower. While the trend remains predominantly bearish, with HNT trading lower, the closest support level is the middle band at $0.30.

A drop to the middle band could mean HNT rebounds higher. However, if demand at this level remains weak, there is a chance the price could trade even lower, moving toward the lower band.

At the time of writing, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator has continued to decline, with the volume-weighted distribution reaching -52 million HNT.

With distribution taking precedence, there is a high chance that HNT will continue to trade lower on the chart until it finds a balance.

Protocol’s weak performance plays a role

AMBCrypto previously warned that while HNT had strong bullish sentiment and traders’ inflows were predominantly long, the protocol was not ready for a rally as it continued to underperform.

The Helium network has continued to operate at a loss since then, with no profitability recorded yet. At the time of this report, losses in Q3 2026 had amounted to $202,000, representing an additional $24,000 in losses since the earlier warning.

Overall, HNT remains in a clear bearish state. The Spot market netflow also shows that roughly $158,000 worth of the asset was sold into the market as sellers continued to dominate.

Final Summary

• HNT faces further downside risk as bearish momentum strengthens and the Bollinger Bands point to a potential drop toward the $0.32 support level.
• Weak protocol performance adds pressure, with HNT recording continued losses and Spot market netflows showing increased selling activity.