Expecting LINK’s recovery? You should read this as…

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

• LINK dropped below a two-year low of $5.30
• LINK’s CVD witnessed a sluggish rise but the open interest rate tanked

Regardless of the Fed decision, a strong recovery in the crypto market could be elusive because of the Binance lawsuit. So, Chainlink [LINK], which had dropped below its 2021/2022 lows of $5.300, could face an uphill task reversing recent losses. 

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At press time, LINK’s price was $5.4, up from the two-year low after key whale moves, but key roadblocks could cap its upside. 

What’s next for LINK?

Source: LINK/USDT on TradingView

After consolidating between $6.24 – $6.80 for most of May, LINK broke below the range, smashing the 2021 lows of $5.30. The drop eased at $4.761 before attempting a recovery, but the mild rally is headed into a key bearish zone. 

A Fibonacci retracement tool was placed between the high at the end of April and the recent low. Based on the tool, the pocket between 23.6% and 38.2% Fib levels is a key resistance area because it aligns with an FVG (fair value gap) of $5.3 – $5.93 (white). 

Hence, a negative price reaction at the above zone could set LINK to devalue to $5.4 or $4.76. Any move below the 2021 lows could head to $4.1. 

Conversely, a session close above the 50% Fib level ( $6.13) could offer bulls a slight edge. However, the H12’s market structure will remain bearish unless LINK moves above the 78.6% Fib level ($6.915). 

There was notable buying pressure from 10 June as Relative Strenght Index (RSI) climbed above the oversold zone. Similarly, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) crossed the zero mark, indicating a surge in capital inflows for LINK. 

CVD rose, but OI tanked

Source: Coinalyze

The weak bullish momentum seen on the price charts was confirmed by the sluggish rising Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). It shows buying volumes registered a slight uptick from 10 June. 

How much are 1,10,100 LINKs worth today? 

But the open interest (OI) rates declined from >$110 million to below <$80 million in the same period. This underscores the bearish sentiment in the futures market and could delay a strong LINK recovery if it doesn’t cross $100 million.