How Germany’s missed Bitcoin haul can decide BTC’s next big move

Key Takeaways 

The German authorities missed about 45K BTC from the piracy website Movie2K. This could be another $5B supply overhang if they opt for a sell-off. 

Germany fumbled its Bitcoin [BTC] holdings and dumped everything in mid-2024, only for the price to double to over $100K.

Now, it has another chance of seizing $5B worth of BTC. But will it make the same mistake and drag the market with it?

According to blockchain analytics firm Arkham, Germany missed 45K BTC, worth about $5B, linked to illegal film piracy activities of the movie site, Movie2K. 

The firm added that the assets were spread across over 100 BTC wallets and were ‘most likely still under the control of Movie2K operators.’

Leaving over $2B on the table

In 2024, German authorities offloaded 49,858 BTC, the seized stash from Movie2K, which was given up ‘voluntarily’ by the operators. At that time, BTC was below $60K, and the dumping dragged BTC price for a while. 

Nearly a year later, BTC rallied 2x and tagged $124K, meaning Germany would have doubled the $2.89B they got in 2024. It left over $2B on the table.

In fact, some German lawmakers begged the government to create a strategic BTC reserve with the seized assets. But the pleas fell on deaf ears. 

Will they listen this time round? Or will it sell immediately once it consolidates all the 45K BTC found by Arkham? 

For perspective, the German sell-off in mid-2024 coincided with BTC’s five-month-long consolidation. In fact, BTC dropped about 25% last June, partly because of German selling pressure. 

It remains to be seen whether the German authorities will follow up on Arkham’s findings and seize the assets.