HYPE rockets 11% as Bitcoin climbs – But what happens if $40 fails again?

• HYPE has surged nearly 11% to reclaim the $39 level, edging closer to its all-time high. 
• Could this set the stage for a quick shakeout as leveraged longs get squeezed?

When it comes to Hyperliquid [HYPE], it’s starting to look like traders have been waiting for Bitcoin [BTC] to blink just so they could pounce. 

On the 9th of June, BTC printed its longest green candle in a month, up 4%. And right on cue, HYPE followed with an explosive 11.22% surge, smashing through $39 and closing the day at $39.171.

This marks the second time in June that HYPE has taken a swing at the $40 resistance. The last two attempts? Both got smacked down by broader market weakness, dragging HYPE into the red.

But the current structure is showing more resilience. 

RSI remains in check, even on lower timeframes. This breakout is now being backed by a sharp 11.90% spike in Open Interest, pushing it to a record $1.69 billion, even higher than the peaks seen during the last two rallies.

So, will this be the breakout that finally clears the $40 supply wall and launches HYPE into price discovery? The technicals are aligning, but it all hinges on whether conviction can overpower the next wave of capitulation.

HYPE heats up: Is a breakout just one candle away?

Smart money stepping in at the top is often a powerful signal, and this time is no exception. Lookonchain flagged a fresh whale entry: 126,353 HYPE scooped up at an average cost of $39.1. 

Sure, that’s conviction at a key resistance. But does that signal a confirmed bottom? Not quite. 

Previous attempts at new all-time highs were also met with heavy whale inflows and rising Open Interest. In fact, on the 26th of May, HYPE tagged its record high of $39.12, backed by a then-record $1.39 billion in OI.

The setup looked textbook bullish, until it wasn’t. What followed was a swift reversal. A wave of deleveraging dragged OI down to $1.19 billion, and HYPE retraced to $31.41 in under five days.

Now, with overheating signals creeping back in, FOMO’s probably on the sidelines. A pullback? Still very much in play.

That said, HYPE’s been glued to BTC. If Bitcoin can hold $109k, or punch through $110k, it could flip sentiment fast. FOMO comes rushing back, and $40 finally breaks.

But holding that level? Still a tough ask. With liquidity heavily concentrated in derivatives, the risk of a sharp unwind remains elevated.