Is Bitcoin price bottom in? aSOPR suggests BTC is about to…

Bitcoin [BTC] may be on the brink of a critical turning point, with recent market signals suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has remained persistently below 1, signaling that many investors are selling at a loss — an indicator often linked to market capitulation.

At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index is showing signs of recovery, pointing to a potential easing of selling pressure despite recent outflows and typical weekend slowdowns.

Is Bitcoin nearing a market bottom, or is there more volatility ahead?

aSOPR and market bottom signals

 aSOPR measures whether Bitcoin investors are selling at a profit or a loss. A reading below 1 indicates that the average seller is exiting at a loss, often aligning with capitulation phases and market bottoms.

Historically, when aSOPR dips below 1 for an extended period and then recovers, it has signaled a shift in trend.

Source: CryptoQuant

In the chart, red arrows highlight previous instances where aSOPR fell below 1, aligning with local price bottoms before Bitcoin rebounded.

The most recent drop in early 2025 suggests a similar pattern, raising the question whether Bitcoin is nearing another turning point.

If selling pressure eases and demand strengthens, history may repeat with another recovery.

Coinbase premium index shows signs of stabilization

The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and other exchanges, has been recovering after a sharp decline.

A negative premium often signals stronger selling pressure from U.S. investors, while a positive premium suggests demand from institutional buyers.

Source: CryptoQuant

In late February, the premium turned deeply negative as Bitcoin dropped below $85,000. However, recent movements show a stabilization near the $90,000 level, aligning with the 50-day Moving Average.

While institutional demand isn’t aggressively pushing prices higher yet, selling pressure is easing. If the premium sustains positive territory, it could indicate renewed accumulation, supporting a potential Bitcoin rebound in the coming weeks.

Liquidation patterns in the last week

Bitcoin experienced significant liquidations as its price sharply declined from above $95,000 to a low near $76,000.

The heatmap reveals heavy liquidation clusters in the $90,000-$95,000 range, indicating that a large number of long positions were wiped out. As BTC dropped, liquidation activity decreased, suggesting a shift in market structure.

Source: CryptoQuant

The lowest point of the week saw fewer liquidations, implying that many leveraged traders had already been flushed out. A recovery toward $85,000 saw moderate liquidations, but resistance remains near $90,000.

If BTC reaches this level again, more liquidations could spark another wave of volatility, making it a key level to watch.

Are investors capitulating?

Bitcoin’s recent volatility h has sparked concerns about capitulation, but signs remain mixed. The sharp drop from $95,000 to $76,000 triggered mass-long liquidations. However, the Coinbase Premium Index suggests U.S. investors are not in full panic mode.

Instead, the market is caught in uncertainty, with price action stabilizing around $85,000.

Liquidation patterns reveal forced exits, especially above $90,000. Yet BTC’s slow recovery hints at exhaustion rather than widespread fear. Trading activity remains elevated, indicating that conviction isn’t fully lost.

Key levels to watch include $90,000-$92,500, where failed breakouts could lead to renewed selling, and $76,000, a crucial support level.

BTC has reclaimed $90,000 following President Trump’s altcoin reserve announcement. Bullish sentiment may have returned, but it’s still early.

Continued liquidations could push prices lower, with a final flush below $80,000 potentially marking a true bottom before any sustained recovery.