Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin ready for a rally? These market indicators say otherwise

Investors and traders need to be prepared for more range-bound price action in the coming weeks.

Published

4 weeks ago

on

  • Bitcoin speculators were reluctant to bid, based on the Open Interest stagnation.
  • Funding rates were only slightly positive, and BTC might not be ready to rally.

Bitcoin [BTC] held on to the $67k support level, defending the previous week’s gains and the bulls were looking to build on it. At press time, the price was at $68.9k, and the $71.4k-$71.6k is the next resistance zone.

The trading volume slump posed a threat to the bulls. Short-term holder profitability also grew. The coin days destroyed metric soared recently, which could spark Bitcoin volatility.

Assessing the speculator sentiment

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) crypto analyst Axel Adler observed that the weekly change in Open Interest was neutral at -1%. This came even though BTC had flipped the $67k level to support and was aiming to push higher.

The lack of speculative interest over the past week indicated that most market participants were sidelined. They were unwilling to bet on price movements and lacked bullish conviction. This could see BTC form a short-term range between $67k and $71.5k.

The analyst also reflected that this would need to change for Bitcoin to embark on its next trend.

The lack of bull dominance pointed toward a lethargic market

In another post, the analyst also showed that dramatic price surges have been accompanied by spikes in funding rates. In late 2020 and early 2021, the massive rally from $20k was accompanied by periods of high funding rates that reached +0.15.

The rally since 2023 October also saw the funding rate spike above the +0.03 mark. However, at press time, it was at +0.008.

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This showed a lack of bullish conviction. Combined with the slump in the weekly trading volume, the evidence strongly hinted that Bitcoin is not ready to breakout past the $72k area yet.

Investors and traders need to be prepared for more rangebound price action in the coming weeks.

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