Is Bitcoin’s mid-cycle reset the start of BTC’s next bull run? Assessing…
Bitcoin's on-chain signals say this isn’t late-cycle euphoria.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is undergoing a mid-cycle supply rotation. Short-term holders are gaining ground as long-dormant coins reactivate at scale.
A structural shift is unfolding in Bitcoin’s [BTC] supply dynamics.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply has declined to 14.54 million BTC, marking a monthly low. In contrast, Short-Term Holder (STH) supply has climbed to 2.4 million BTC, reflecting a 7.96% uptick over the same period.
Notably, this rotation aligns with BTC’s 8.04% monthly close, where price wicked up to a new all-time high of $123K. Reinforcing this trend, Bitcoin’s new address momentum is ticking higher.
As shown in the chart, BTC’s 30D SMA of new addresses has crossed above the 365D SMA for the first time in months. It is a classic signal of renewed on-chain expansion.
Typically, this kind of crossover suggests the rate of new users onboarding is now outpacing the yearly trend, marking a strong vote of confidence from retail and newer market entrants.
Zooming out, the picture’s clear: Bitcoin supply is rotating into fresher hands, and the network’s heating up. That’s a notable shift from past cycles where STHs were quick to de-risk on new highs.
Bitcoin’s supply map is getting redrawn
CryptoQuant data confirms a notable structural rotation in dormant BTC supply. Bitcoin’s old supply is waking up fast, and in much bigger chunks.
In 2023, only around 59k BTC from long-dormant wallets moved. But in 2024, that number exploded to 255k BTC, and 2025 is already at 214k BTC with months to go.
What really stands out is the size of each move. Average TX size ballooned from 162 BTC to 1,011 BTC, signaling these aren’t retail flows. It’s likely high-conviction entities rotating supply back into active circulation.
Meanwhile, 2025’s average monthly reactivated supply sits at 30.7K BTC, marking a 6x jump YoY (Year-over-Year). And yet, despite this supply-side activity, Bitcoin has rallied above $120K, highlighting strong underlying demand.
Put simply, Bitcoin is redrawing its supply map in real time. Dormant capital is reawakening, short-term holders are gaining market share, and on-chain user growth is accelerating.
And these aren’t symptoms of late-cycle euphoria. Instead, these are signs of a mid-cycle structural reset.
As this repositioning unfolds behind the scenes, Bitcoin appears poised to enter its next major leg up.
