Is Coinbase the ‘Amazon of crypto?’ COIN gets $510 target from Bernstein

• Bernstein revised its price target for COIN by 64% from $310 to $510. 
• The research firm cited stablecoin growth and institutional crypto moat as key catalysts. 

Coinbase [COIN] hit a six-month high of $369.28 on the 25th of June, extending Q2 gains to over 140%. The extended momentum followed a recent bullish call by the research firm Bernstein.

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, raised COIN’s price target by 64% from a previous target of $310 to $510, stating that Coinbase is

“The most misunderstood company.”

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And,

“Amazon of crypto financial services.”

“The most misunderstood stock” gets a new storyline

Bernstein analysts argued that Coinbase’s strength has been underestimated across the board.

It’s the only crypto firm in the S&P 500 and runs the largest stablecoin business across exchanges, contributing nearly 15% of total revenue.

“It dominates institutional crypto (powers custody for 8 out of 11 Bitcoin ETF asset managers), acquired the largest global crypto options exchange (Deribit).”

In fact, the analysts expect Coinbase to gain massively from the stablecoin bill.

Additionally, Coinbase’s moat in institutional crypto remains unrivaled, per Bernstein, citing the firm’s custody operations and recent acquisition of Deribit option exchange.

Still, Coinbase runs Base, an Ethereum layer 2 (L2) that Bernstein analysts view as the foundation of a tokenization network for institutional clients, as seen by recent JPMorgan’s JPMD tests. 

Bernstein’s valuation

Collectively, these growth catalysts informed the analysts’ 2x projection for earnings per share (EPS) for the next two years and COIN’s 64% upside. 

“We are 2.2x consensus on 2025E EPS and 2.3x consensus on 2026E EPS. We present a deep dive primer on Coinbase. We also update the model and move up our target price (PT $510, Outperform).”

They expect Coinbase’s total revenue to grow to $9.5 billion by the end of 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2026.

The growth would be boosted by an increase in trading and non-trading revenue streams like staking and stablecoins. On EPS projections, the analysts noted, 

“Our adjusted EPS for 2025E (ex FV) has increased to $11.26. For 2026E and 2027E, we have adjusted our EPS estimates to ~$17.92 in 2026E (up ~22% vs our previous estimate) and $20.38 in 2027E (up ~28% vs previous estimates).

However, they downplayed any bearish thesis on Coinbase, stating that competition from Robinhood and other traditional brokers is still ‘months away.’ 

At press time, COIN’s pre-market value was $357, suggesting about 43% upside if the $510 target is hit. 

Measured from April lows, COIN has surged over 140%, outperforming some select crypto equities in Q2 recovery.