BONK up 158% in July, but can buybacks push it 46% higher?
- ETH’s price tapped its realized price, raising hopes of a potential bottom.
- Weak demand for spot ETH ETFs and flat network growth could derail such an outcome
Ethereum’s [ETH] price is in the news after it tagged a key level that flagged previous long-term market bottoms, raising hopes of potential reversal for the altcoin.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Kriptolik, ETH dropped below its ‘realized price,’ the average cost basis for most buyers. This level often marks a potential market shift. The analyst claimed,
“These periods have consistently been followed by strong recoveries — making them strategic accumulation points for long-term investors.”
Source: CryptoQuant
The attached chart also revealed that the realized price saw market rebounds in 2018-2020.
However, the level could also act as a resistance in the short term when ETH’s price drops below it. In such a case, the analyst warned that a hike in panic selling of ETH could be likely in the near term.
What’s next for ETH?
Even so, U.S stocks and crypto, including ETH, have reacted like risk-on assets to Trump tariff updates. As such, a likely bottom could be accelerated only through a positive macro shift.
In fact, even institutional investors exited the altcoin for six consecutive weeks, as shown by the consistent outflows from U.S spot ETH ETFs.
Source: Soso Value
Another cautious data point, according to analyst Stacy Muur, is stagnant active users. She noted that Ethereum active addresses have been flat for four years.
Although some critics have argued that users migrated to L2s, stagnant network growth could cap ETH’s recovery prospects.
Source: Glassnode
From a price chart perspective, ETH dropped to a two-year low below $1.5k. In fact, it was down 64% from its press time cycle peak of $4k.
With ongoing macro uncertainty, an extended decline to $1k can’t be overruled in the short term.
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
Simply put, the altcoin hit a pivotal point, especially when tracked from a realized price perspective.
However, the macro front currently dominates market direction and could delay a potential ETH rebound if the uncertainty persists in the short term. Besides, as revealed by a 7-week streak of ETH ETF outflows, the weak demand didn’t paint a strong recovery outlook.
