Altcoin

Is Litecoin’s pre-halving rally underway?

Historically, Litecoin’s value increased before the miners-reward event. With the current market condition, is it going to be the same?

Published

2 years ago

on

  • An analyst predicted a notable uptick before Litecoin’s next halving.
  • The technical perspective aligned with the projection as new addresses spiked.

With 64 days left before Litecoin’s [LTC] third halving, optimism has grown about the coin’s value. The event, which first took place on 25 August 2015, was done to ensure that demand for the coin increased while the issuance of LTC decreased. 

The first halving happened at a block height of 840,000. The second, which produced 12.5 LTC for miners, occurred at a block height of 1.68 million. But there was one similar impact on the LTC value prior to the halving. 

The calm before the storm

On both occasions, the price of the coin

increased significantly a few weeks before the D-day. Now, analyst Michaël van de Poppe has mentioned that a recurrence could be in the works.

According to Poppe, LTC could hold strongly around the $83-$86 range before blasting above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Looking back at LTC historically, this opinion might not be surprising. Because before the second halving on 5 August 2019, Litecoin went on a tremendous pre-halving rally in May of the same year; likewise, the first.

So, what are the chances of a repeat? According to the daily LTC/USD chart, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has increased to 21.24 million. The OBV is an indicator for measuring bearish or bullish divergence, based on an asset’s direction.

Litecoin accumulation on the ris
e

In a trading range, an increasing OBV suggested that accumulation was taking place. Since this was the case with LTC, it meant that an upward breakout might not be far away. The opposite happens when the indicator trends downwards.

When considering the direction, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed that buyers had not yet solidified their authority. 

Although the +DMI (green) was higher than the -DMI (red), the hesitation by the Average Directional Index (ADX) to provide strength to LTC’s price action helped with the inference. 

Source: TradingView

Usually, when the ADX (yellow) rises above 25, it implies a strong directional movement. But when it’s below the value, it means the directional strength is weak.

Beyond accumulation and the price action, IntoTheBlock revealed that the month of May has been favorable for the “lighter” Bitcoin [BTC]. 

Between 30 March and the time of writing, about 1.5 million addresses have been added to the Litecoin cohort. This made the total number of LTC addresses hit 8.5 million.

How much are 1,10,100 LTCs worth today?

This surge in address count meant that these unique addresses have a balance, and have been transacting the native coin on the network. 

While this pushes up demand, time will tell if the forthcoming decrease in supply would positively affect the LTC price

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