Kalshi’s $1B surge in 10 days puts Polymarket on notice: Who wins the prediction race?

Kalshi’s perpetual crypto product has scaled from zero to nearly $1 billion in daily trading volume in under 10 days, peaking at $915.1 million on the 9th of June, underscoring how quickly the platform is widening its lead over rival Polymarket.

Daily volume opened at $106.6 million when the product launched on June 4 and climbed steadily into its high on the 9th of June—the single largest day on record so far—before cooling to $238.2 million by the 13th of June.

Bitcoin contracts drove the bulk of that activity, with Ethereum the next most-traded token as Kalshi broadened its coverage to altcoin markets, including Solana, XRP, and HYPE.

Kalshi has held its lead over Polymarket in crypto volume market share since the 4th of May. From the 15th of June, it commanded 75.3% of the segment—roughly $441.8 million—against Polymarket’s 24.7%.

The crypto volume market share captures the trading volume tied directly to crypto-linked event contracts over the period.

Kalshi OI outpaces every market rival

Open Interest on the crypto perpetual product stayed modest at $6.5 million at the time of reporting. The figure still represents just 0.0058% of the $112.01 billion in total crypto open interest logged over the past 24 hours.

Across all its markets, Kalshi’s open interest reached $1 billion this week, exceeding the combined total of Polymarket, Predict.fun, Opinion, and Limitless, and accounting for about 66% of the $1.5 billion recorded market-wide.

A climbing trade count has powered the run, reaching 20.2 million trades at the time of reporting and pointing to traders growing more active—momentum that should feed through to crypto perpetual volume over time.

Prediction market scale nears multi-month highs

Prediction markets have continued to widen their footprint, with total value locked sitting near its highest level in months.

Total value locked measures the capital traders have committed into open markets at a given moment—the money staked on live event contracts and held until those events resolve—so a rising figure points to more funds parked in active bets across the sector.

That figure peaked at $641.36 million on the 4th of June and has since eased to $499.95 million over the past 24 hours, according to DeFiLlama. Market-wide fees over the past seven days reached $9.22 million.

DeFiLlama now tracks 97 prediction markets across the sector.

Final Summary

• Kalshi’s perpetual crypto product scaled from zero to nearly $1 billion in daily volume in under 10 days, lifting its crypto volume market share to 75.3%.
• The broader sector is maturing alongside the run, with Kalshi holding roughly 66% of market-wide Open Interest.