‘Less friendly’ macro backdrop puts Bitcoin under pressure – What next for BTC?

After stalling at the key resistance at $82K, Bitcoin has round-tripped its May gains, and macro uncertainty could still drive more losses. 

The world’s largest crypto asset extended its pullback to $76K on Monday, the 18th of May, effectively erasing this month’s 8.5% recovery gains. 

Now, the price action was back to the lower range of its ascending channel pattern, further opening the possibility of a correction to the $70K-$72K support zone. 

The move was not surprising, as AMBCrypto reported the $82K-$83K zone as a key inflection point that could reinforce a bullish market set-up or trigger another downtrend. 

Macro uncertainty deepens BTC losses

For Nic Puckrin, macro and cross-asset analyst and Founder of Coin Bureau, the pullback was more than just ‘sell-the-news’ pressure after the CLARITY Act passage.

In an email statement, he told AMBCrypto that, 

Gold and Bitcoin have been selling off in tandem, which can only mean one thing: investors are finally getting worried about tighter monetary conditions.

Citing the new Fed Chair leadership as the key volatility driver, Puckrin added, 

As Kevin Warsh begins his first week as Federal Reserve chair, the market is pricing a 73.6% chance of a rate hike by March 2027. And investors are slowly beginning to catch up to this expectation.

Interest rate cut expectations directly affect risk sentiment across equity, crypto, and even bond markets. As a result, inflation fears, especially if energy markets remain disrupted, would mean rate cut pauses, hikes, or even worse, recession.

In fact, Singapore-based crypto trading desk QCP Capital echoed a similar outlook and cautioned, 

The macro backdrop is turning less friendly. Equities are pulling back, bond yields are at fresh cycle peaks (US 10Y: 4.62%, 30Y: 5.14%), and USD/JPY at 158 to 159 is nearing the key 160 level, where intervention risk and yen-carry unwind fears could rise.

QCP projected that “until clearer tariff or US-Iran headlines emerge, crypto likely stays in a grinding range.”

For Puckrin, however, the next catalyst could be Nvidia’s Q1 earnings report, scheduled for Wednesday, the 20th of May. Still, he agreed with QCP that the West Asia update would remain the dominant price driver. 

Final Summary

• BTC erased May gains as it dropped to $76K amid an ‘unfriendly’ macro landscape and rising selling pressure.  
• Analysts noted that the market could be pricing the new Fed chair’s potential hawkish stance on interest rate cuts.