Michael Saylor drops ‘green dot’ hint: Bullish sign or warning for Bitcoin?
A hedge fund believes that Strategy will likely not rush to sell its Bitcoin stash.
Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s weekend signal has kept the market on edge.
In the past few months, his typical “green dots” signals over the weekend were followed by a BTC purchase announcement on the following day. But the latest message has kept analysts guessing.
The green dot he referenced is the firm’s average cost basis for its 649K BTC stash, which currently stands at $74.4K per BTC. But what does “adding” them really mean?
Decoding Saylor’s next move
The uncertainty surrounding Saylor’s move was further compounded by a recent statement from Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le.
Le said that the firm’s BTC can only be sold if MSTR falls below its mNAV (market-to-net-asset-value) and there are no additional funding options.
Since the mNAV has dropped below 1 at press time, some, like Eli Ben-Sasson, Starknet CEO, cautioned that Strategy would dump its BTC.
Per Sasson, it meant that they could sell BTC and buy back MSTR to boost the mNAV and market standings. Another analyst, Joe Burnett, subscribed to this line of thought and added,
“This means it would be more accretive (BTC Yield) to issue digital credit and buy back MSTR, instead of more BTC.”
For Peter Schiff, however, he couldn’t miss the opportunity to slam Saylor’s action. He said,
“You will keep averaging your Bitcoin cost up and destroying even more value for shareholders.”
He maintained that the MSTR’s model is a Ponzi scheme, claiming that it has no ‘income.’ But Jeff Walton, risk officer at Strive, poked holes into Schiff’s framing, drawing parallels to insurance business models.
What’s next for MSTR?
That said, another credit analyst noted that MSTR was in a tough position and selling BTC would dent their hold thesis. Additionally, such a move would deepen the BTC market rout.
However, Michael Kao, a hedge fund manager, projected that Strategy would not sell its BTC just yet, as its obligations were still manageable.
Besides distressed credit and MSTR slipping below 1, the firm remains at risk of being excluded from the MSCI index by mid-January.
MSTR’s stock value has declined by 60%, from $457 to $177, following a 30% dip in BTC below $90K. It remains to be seen how Saylor will handle the MSCI index review in January and the potential impact on BTC.
Final Thoughts
- Analysts had a different interpretation of Saylor’s latest ‘green dot’ signal and its potential impact on BTC.
- The mid-January MSCI index review remains a key event to track for MSTR and BTC.
