Monero [XMR] freefalls 15% – But why this may not last

• XMR fell 15.15% in 24 hours, erasing most of May’s gains and testing key support at $331.
• Funding Rates stayed positive for a week, but long-biased traders now face liquidation risk below $331.

Monero [XMR] was among the top decliners in the last 24 hours, shedding 15.15% and dragging its monthly gain down to just 17%.

Analysis showed that while bullish sentiment from spot and derivatives market investors is emerging, bearish pressure remains strong, and an immediate rally is not guaranteed.

Will this support save XMR from a fall?

According to the daily chart, XMR dropped to $331, a level aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

However, this level holding is doubtful, as price action over the past three days has broken through previous support levels, erasing market gains from the past two weeks.

Source: TradingView

If this level fails, XMR will likely drop to a fair value gap (FVG) demand zone on the chart, where it could find enough buying pressure to bounce back.

Interestingly, AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that the altcoin still has the potential to rally from this level.

Buyers are stepping up in the market

Despite the sell-off, some market participants appear to be buying the dip.

In the spot market, traders accumulated a significant amount of XMR, totaling $1.59 million during this period.

Source: CoinGlass

These XMR tokens have also been moved into private wallets for long-term holding.

If the volume of purchases continues to grow and the assets remain in private wallets, XMR could maintain upward momentum.

A similar trend is observed in the derivatives market, where the Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate continues to rise.

Source: CoinGlass

This metric, which has remained positive for over a week, showed that most new and existing contracts come from retail investors betting on a rally.

However, going long at this point could trigger notable long liquidations if stop losses are hit at current levels.

Technical indicators confirm a fall is likely

Technical indicators remain bearish, implying that a price drop is likely.

Analysis of the Bollinger Bands (BB) shows that the altcoin has breached the mid-band, which typically acts as support.

This breach suggests that bearish momentum is strong, and the asset could fall toward the lower band.

Source: TradingView

Interestingly, the lower band coincides with the demand zone marked on XMR’s daily chart. Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has been trending upward and currently reads 67.22.

A high ADX reading like this confirms a strong market trend. In context, as the ADX climbs and price falls, the downtrend is likely to continue.