MSTR stock price rebounds 60%—Can it really reach $435?
Strategy shares have rebounded from their June low, although MSTR remains down over 50% in 12 months and faces resistance near $150.
The MSTR stock price has recovered from its June low, but Strategy remains down by more than 50% over the past year.
The rebound has revived interest in Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer’s $435 price target, but reaching it would require MSTR to more than triple from its latest close of $142.80.
MSTR recovers from its June low
Strategy shares fell to approximately $87 in late June after trading near $195 in May, and since then, it has climbed by more than 60%.
The latest trading price for MSTR shares began at $137.35 and peaked briefly at $144.40, ending at $142.80, with 27.16 million shares exchanged.
The latest buying spree is substantial; however, MSTR has been approaching the $145-$150 price region that has historically stalled previous MSTR rallies.
A move beyond that range could encourage another push towards $160. But if buyers lose momentum, it could return to the $120–$125 area, which provided support during the recent recovery.
Although this is slightly improved in the short term, over 12 months, MSTR has lost approximately 56%. This implies that it moves more erratically than Bitcoin, the centre of the Strategy’s business model.
Analyst’s $435 target remains an outlier
Palmer kept his Buy rating after Strategy delivered its latest results [Q2] on 30 July, but he reduced his target price from $570 to $435.
It implies a more than 205% price increment, from the current $142.80 to $435. Considerably higher than even the wider analyst consensus, where the price is targeted somewhere north of $226 and $236.
Palmer sees Strategy as largely a way for investors to gain amplified exposure to Bitcoin. So, that helps MSTR to outperform if Bitcoin rises, but also increases the losses in the downturn.
The firm’s latest BTC on its balance sheet, as per the latest data, is 845,050. In addition, its balance sheet reveals $6.7bn of convertible debt as per its Q2 results.
Those figures help explain Strategy’s wide range of analysts expectations. A prolonged increase in the price of Bitcoin would increase the likelihood of financial security for Strategy, which should in turn push up the stock price. Falling Bitcoin prices, rises in finance costs/loans, or more stock offerings that diminish shareholders’ control or raise the number of shares will cause the opposite.
Final Summary
- MSTR is now up over 60% from its June lows, but still 56% lower over twelve months.
- Benchmark’s $435 target implies 205% upside and sits well above the wider analyst consensus.
