Examining Dogecoin’s bullish setup – Is $0.42 still possible?
- Ondo was trending slowly upward and was testing the $1 region as support at press time.
- Clues pointed toward profit-taking during the rally alongside weak demand.
Ondo [ONDO] broke out of a descending channel in April and has made a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past month. Yet, despite the rally, the CMF remained obstinately below the +0.05 level.
Source: ONDO/USDT on TradingView
The indicator showed sizeable capital outflows recently, and was once again below -0.05. This, combined with the relatively low trading volume following the channel breakout, was a worry for investors.
Source: Glassnode
The MVRV Z-score measured whether the token is undervalued or overvalued relative to its “fair value.”
In March-April 2025, the metric fell to lows last seen in August-November 2024. This suggested that during and just after the channel breakout, Ondo likely formed a market bottom.
Clues of ONDO holders booking profits during the rally
Source: Glassnode
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of Ondo rose to 1.53 on the 9th of May. The metric measures the profitability of holders, and is simply the price sold/price paid.
The increase in the SOPR reading came alongside a 27% rally from $0.86 to $1.1. However, almost immediately, it fell back to 1.01.
This showed that holders’ profits had decreased, even though the price was still around $1.
Source: Santiment
At the same time, the data from Santiment showed that the dormant circulation has not changed dramatically over the past three weeks.
This indicated a lack of ONDO movement from long-term holders’ addresses.
Therefore, the conclusion from the SOPR drop was increased profit-taking from short-term holders. This also explained the lack of movement on the dormant circulation metric.
The mean coin age has been trending higher since mid-March. It briefly dipped on the 8th of May, during the Ondo rally.
This dip suggested some token movement from holders, which was likely profit-taking activity that affected the SOPR.
