ONDO: How the $1 support will determine its next move

• Ondo was trending slowly upward and was testing the $1 region as support at press time.
• Clues pointed toward profit-taking during the rally alongside weak demand.

Ondo [ONDO] broke out of a descending channel in April and has made a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past month. Yet, despite the rally, the CMF remained obstinately below the +0.05 level.

The indicator showed sizeable capital outflows recently, and was once again below -0.05. This, combined with the relatively low trading volume following the channel breakout, was a worry for investors.

The MVRV Z-score measured whether the token is undervalued or overvalued relative to its “fair value.”

In March-April 2025, the metric fell to lows last seen in August-November 2024. This suggested that during and just after the channel breakout, Ondo likely formed a market bottom.

Clues of ONDO holders booking profits during the rally

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of Ondo rose to 1.53 on the 9th of May. The metric measures the profitability of holders, and is simply the price sold/price paid.

The increase in the SOPR reading came alongside a 27% rally from $0.86 to $1.1. However, almost immediately, it fell back to 1.01.

This showed that holders’ profits had decreased, even though the price was still around $1.

At the same time, the data from Santiment showed that the dormant circulation has not changed dramatically over the past three weeks.

This indicated a lack of ONDO movement from long-term holders’ addresses.

Therefore, the conclusion from the SOPR drop was increased profit-taking from short-term holders. This also explained the lack of movement on the dormant circulation metric.

The mean coin age has been trending higher since mid-March. It briefly dipped on the 8th of May, during the Ondo rally.

This dip suggested some token movement from holders, which was likely profit-taking activity that affected the SOPR.