PEPE is hitting new all-time lows – Is a reversal likely?

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

• PEPE continues to hit new ATLs in June 
• Selling pressure persists in spot and futures markets 

Q2 2023 has cleared the market enthusiasm seen towards the beginning of the year. Recent selling pressure has obliterated the budding frog-themed meme-coin, Pepe [PEPE]. It debuted in Q2 and PEPE’s initial buzz around possibly overtaking SHIB or DOGE has fallen flat amidst Q2’s bearish pressure. 

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However, this week could see significant volatility and price swings. United States’ CPI data for May will be released on 13 June, followed by the US FOMC meeting on 13/14 June. A hike in U.S CPI data and a dovish FOMC stance could rally Bitcoin [BTC] and PEPE. 

Will the trend of ATLs ease?

Source: PEPE/USDT on TradingView

PEPE has been making new all-time lows (ATLs) in June. On 5 June, it hit a low of $0.00000095, closing below the mid-May swing low. 

At the time of writing, it made another low of $0.00000084 on the 4-hour chart. This captures the shrinking market as chalked by the descending channel (white). 

Over the weekend (10/11 June), PEPE faced rejection at the range high ($0.00000120) and eased below the mid-range. So far, the mid-range has become a key resistance level and could drag PEPE to the range low of $0.00000073. 

However, PEPE could smash the mid-range barrier and target the range high around $0.00000108. The upswing is likely if the U.S CPI data and the FOMC announcement are positive. A bullish breakout could set PEPE to target $0.00000120, $0.00000132, or the 50% Fib level ($0.00000152). 

Meanwhile, the RSI and Accumulation/Distribution indicators moved sideways, indicating a likely narrow consolidation before a rally or price dump. 

What’s the state of PEPE’s sell/buy pressure?

Source: Santiment

Sellers heavily dominated the spot and futures markets, at the time of writing. For example, the supply on exchanges (red line) has risen steadily since mid-May, indicating more PEPE moved into CEXs (central exchanges) for offloading. 

Over the same period, supply outside exchanges, which tracks short-term accumulation, dipped. It captures the rising short-term selling pressure in spot markets. 

How much are 1,10,100 PEPEs worth today? 

 The sentiment is similar in the futures market. Short positions dominated at 53% against long positions (47%) on the 4-hour timeframe at press time. It suggested that more traders have been shorting the asset – A bearish outlook. 

However, the sentiment could change if the two major U.S economic variables (CPI and Fed rate) are positive.

Source: Coinglass