Predicting Bitcoin’s bounce: If not $66K, then what?

• Bitcoin is expected to trade within the established range in the weeks after the halving.
• In the near term, the $66.8k level was crucial resistance, and another support level was worth watching.

Bitcoin [BTC] formed a range between $73k and $60.7k. The mid-point of this range sat at $66.9k.

Bitcoin saw a healthy uptrend at press time, but the New York Open on Monday the 22nd of April had not yet occurred.

On Sunday, crypto analyst CrypNuevo posted on X (formerly Twitter) that he expected a move to $66k to commence.

This has come to pass, and AMBCrypto decided to investigate where BTC prices would go next within the range.

The conditions for a move past $66k

CrypNuevo pointed out that the 7-day look-back period liquidation heatmap showed a cluster of liquidation levels at the $66k level.

This level is also less than 1% below the mid-range level of the range formation mentioned earlier.

This was a good place for prices to reverse bearishly. The New York session open could see prices jump past $66k, and collect the liquidity there.

It would likely follow up by plunging lower to take out the eager bulls waiting for a move past the $65k-$66k short-term resistance zone.

The invalidation of such a bearish reversal would be a continued move past $66k. A move below $64.5k would indicate that $63k was the next target.

Source: Hyblock

The liquidation levels showed the long positions far outweighed the short positions. This indicated that a downward move was favorable. The $66.8k region had a high concentration of large short liquidations.

Meanwhile, the $62.8k area had a cluster of long liquidation levels as well. Therefore, a drop below $64.5k would likely see a dip to $62.8k.

Combining technical indicators with the range formation

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

CrypNuevo highlighted that a deviation below the range lows usually sees prices go to the opposite extreme of the range.

We saw such a deviation on the 17th of April, when prices fell to $59.8k. Since then, the direction has reversed.

The RSI on the 4-hour chart also highlighted bullish momentum. Yet, the OBV was unable to scale the local resistance level. This indicated a lack of buying volume in the past week.

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The range highs and range lows have confluence with the liquidity pockets at $73.2k and $56k. Therefore, these are the higher timeframe levels of interest.

It is expected that Bitcoin would consolidate within these levels for a few weeks and gather strength for its breakout after the selling pressure that came with the halving.