- BTC must overcome strong resistance at the $88K–$90K range to maintain bullish momentum amid the $16.5B options expiry.
- A high concentration of Bitcoin call options near $90K and declining volume hint at potential profit-taking or a pause in the rally.
A record-breaking $16.5 billion worth of Bitcoin [BTC] options are set to expire on the 28th of March, sparking intense speculation about the asset’s next major move.
As traders brace for this significant event, the options market and technical indicators flash crucial signals that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Options market sees bullish tilt, but heavy clusters remain
Data from Coinglass shows massive Open Interest (OI) near the $90K strike price, with a notable tilt toward call options.
The notional value of the outstanding contracts has reached an all-time high, highlighting elevated market exposure.
Source: Coinglass
Interestingly, a large concentration of call options lies around the $90K and $95K marks, suggesting that bulls are betting on a breakout beyond these resistance levels.
However, there’s also a sizable put cluster near the $80K-$82K range, which means a failure to climb above $90,000 could trigger downward pressure if traders hedge their positions aggressively.
Bitcoin’s technical setup hints at caution despite momentum
On the 12-hour BTC/USD chart, Bitcoin traded around $86,100, struggling to maintain upward momentum.
The 50-day MA at $85,119 acted as near-term support, while the 200-day MA at $94,175 loomed overhead as a key resistance.
Source: TradingView
Adding to the uncertainty is the Expiry Candle indicator, which marks the current weekly expiry range at $109,358, well above the current price.
Historically, option expiry events can introduce volatility spikes but often fail to push BTC beyond key psychological levels unless volume follows through.
Low volume and high risk: Can Bitcoin bulls sustain the push?
Volume metrics suggest weakening participation, as reflected in the relatively muted trading activity despite elevated OI.
This divergence indicates that while positions are stacked, actual conviction remains low. Even minor price shifts can spark liquidations and exaggerated moves in such an environment.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows some support near the $85K region. If Bitcoin manages to hold this level through expiry, it could serve as a launchpad for a $90K retest. However, a break below could invite short-term selling, especially with heavily skewed leverage.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin approaches the upcoming $16.5B options expiry, all eyes are on whether bulls can reclaim $90K or if expiry-induced volatility will drive a temporary pullback.
With heavy OI, mixed signals, and thin volume, the next 48 hours could prove decisive for BTC’s trend in Q2 2025.
