Shiba Inu’s bear run can continue for another 7 months – Here’s why
The percent supply in profit metric tracks the percentage of the Shiba Inu circulating supply in profit. It reached lows in February that had not been seen since 2021.
The top memecoins have not made much headway from where they were. Among the top four memecoins by market capitalization, Shiba Inu [SHIB] and Pepe [PEPE] were within 2% of where their prices were a week ago.
Memecoin [M] has gained 10% over the past week, while Dogecoin [DOGE] has shed 3.8%.
Shiba Inu was down by 0.51% from last week. The lack of momentum for Bitcoin in recent days has likely affected the memecoin sector’s top assets. The short-term lackluster performance was a smokescreen.
Even if SHIB rallied by 10% or more next week, its long-term holder sentiment would be firmly bearish. Two metrics helped explain the pessimism behind the meme.
2 areas of worry for Shiba Inu bulls
The percent supply in profit metric tracks the percentage of SHIB’s circulating supply in profit. At the time of writing, it was at a meager 3.07%. For context, October 2023 saw 3.93% supply in profit, the lowest figure in recent years.
February 2026 saw the metric reach 2.86%. The circulating supply has been at bear market profit levels lately. The deep holder losses meant sentiment around the memecoin was extremely pessimistic.
The MVRV ratio and its deviation from the all-time mean can also be used to mark extremes in SHIB pricing. During the 2022 bear market, the MVRV was between 0.5 and 1 standard deviation below the mean.
It was an extreme deviation, and it lasted from May 2022 to January 2023. If the same trends repeat, Shiba Inu could see its bear market continue until September 2026.
The low profitability and extremely low MVRV values confirmed a multi-month bear market ahead for SHIB. Even news, such as the proposed ETF by T.Rowe Price that could expand to volatile assets like Shiba Inu, might not be enough to lift the memecoin from its bearish trend.
The price structure on the higher timeframes was bearish. A bounce toward the swing highs would present a selling opportunity and would be unlikely to be breakout-type trades.
Final Summary
- The circulating supply in profit and extreme deviation in MVRV from its all-time mean confirmed that Shiba Inu was in a cyclical bear market.
- If historical trends repeat, the current bear market would likely persist till September 2026.
