SIREN calls from the deep after 94% crash, but here’s why you should not answer
A SIREN recovery beyond $1 will be extremely hard in the coming months, and short-term bounces would likely be sold off too.
The memecoin market remained one of the shakier sectors in crypto. The altcoin market cap has fallen by 4.5% over the past week. During this time, memecoins have shed 12% in value, according to Glassnode data on sector performance.
Against this backdrop of relative weakness, siren [SIREN] has rallied by 21% in the past 24 hours.
Before bulls get excited, they must remember that a whale sold 92% of the total SIREN supply in just two days earlier in June. This caused a 94% price correction from $1.35 on Tuesday, the 9th of June, to $0.08 on Sunday, the 14th of June.
The price bounce in recent hours has to be framed within this context. Are there short-term trading opportunities for traders to watch out for?
SIREN falls to April lows
On the 1-day timeframe, the bounce to the $1.385 high from early May, made in the first week of June, turned out to be a bull trap. Shortly afterward, the catastrophic whale selling sent SIREN prices spiraling to the $0.131 support level.
The support level was a swing low made in April before a swift SIREN rally. At the time of writing, the memecoin was trading slightly below this support. It indicated exhaustion from the sellers, at least for now.
The MFI was climbing back toward neutral 50 but has been bearishly biased over the past two weeks. The CMF was at -0.37, well below the -0.05 threshold that indicates significant capital outflows.
The technical indicators captured the heavy selling in recent days. Market participants might be looking to buy the supply, but pessimistic market sentiment and opportunistic short-term profit-taking will make any short-term rally difficult.
A bounce toward $0.16 and $0.24 to collect the liquidity overhead is possible, but it is hard to imagine a sustained rally. A recovery beyond $1 will be extremely hard in the coming months, and maybe even years.
Final Summary
- The SIREN whale selling earlier in June has shattered market confidence, and it is now up to the community to knit itself together again.
- A short-term price bounce back above $0.10 was possible, but short-term holders would likely use any price bounce to take profits or exit at reduced losses.
