Solana – Why SOL could fall to $50 after breaking THIS key support

Solana remained under pressure despite posting a 2.65% daily gain. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, a key technical breakdown, and fresh token unstaking activity continued to weigh on sentiment.

At press time, SOL traded at $65.40, up 2.65% over the past 24 hours. Trading Volume also climbed 25% to $2.98 billion, reflecting renewed market activity.

Could Solana fall another 22%?

Despite the rebound, SOL’s daily chart continued to flash bearish signals.

The altcoin recently broke below the multi-year support level at $76.25. The current recovery appeared to be a relief bounce rather than a trend reversal.

Based on current price action, SOL could decline toward $50 if it remains below $76.25. That would represent a further 22% drop from current levels.

However, a sustained move back above $76.25 could invalidate this bearish outlook.

Technical indicators also supported the downtrend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) climbed to 46, signaling that a strong trend remained in place.

That left investors watching on-chain activity for additional clues.

Why are investors watching FTX again?

According to Lookonchain, the defunct FTX and Alameda Research unstaked 200,241 SOL worth $12.99 million. The move was likely tied to ongoing creditor repayments.

Historically, FTX-related SOL unstaking events have often been followed by token distributions, increasing supply in the market.

On top of that, Solana treasury firm Forward Industries transferred 455,784 SOL worth $31.87 million to Coinbase Prime.

For context, the company acquired 6.83 million SOL during 2025 at an average cost of $232.08. With Solana [SOL] trading far below that level, the position was deeply underwater.

Together, these transactions suggested additional supply could enter the market.

Are traders expecting more downside?

Despite steady inflows into U.S. spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), derivatives traders remained cautious. Data from SoSoValue showed spot SOL ETFs recorded $1.79 million in net inflows this week.

Even so, traders in the derivatives market continued leaning bearish.

According to CoinGlass, SOL’s Long/Short Ratio fell to 0.99, indicating a growing preference for short positions. At press time, $64.40 and $65.80 stood out as major Liquidation levels.

Traders held $27.49 million in long positions around these levels. Short positions totaled $49.26 million. That imbalance highlighted a stronger conviction among bearish traders.

If selling pressure persists, SOL could remain vulnerable to another move lower.

Final Summary

• Solana’s break below $76.25 remained the strongest technical signal supporting further downside risk.
• FTX and Alameda’s latest unstaking event raised concerns about additional SOL entering circulation.