This may be the white swan to the black swan of UST’s crash
UST’s crash was the black swan event which confirmed that crypto-winter is here. Additionally, the market’s failure to register significant recovery further enforced this conclusion. Investors are now left wondering how long the crypto-winter will last, but Grayscale’s ETF applications might provide us a reasonable timeline.
The lack of healthy bullish volumes has contributed to subdued crypto-prices over the last few days. That might change if a white swan event such as a major ETF approval in the west takes place. Such an outcome is currently plausible thanks to Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF applications. In fact, Grayscale is confident that such an outcome might take place within the next few weeks.
There are multiple reasons suggesting that a Bitcoin ETF might soon be on the way. The SEC has so far turned down multiple crypto-ETFs, but Grayscale’s application is still on the table. This is a sign that the SEC might be considering an approval.
Will the SEC approve Grayscale’s ETF and what is the timeline?
It is still unclear whether the SEC will approve Grayscale’s ETF, but there are numerous factors supporting the likelihood of an approval.
For example, the SEC is facing more pressure to pursue such a route especially after the recent approval and roll-out of three crypto ETFs in Australia. This makes Australia the second country to embrace crypto-ETFs after Canada.
Grayscale also launched its first Bitcoin ETF in Europe. However, it was reportedly a Futures Bitcoin ETF. Hence, the lack of a significant impact on the market.
The SEC plans to announce its decision on Grayscale’s currently pending spot Bitcoin ETF application in June.
How will an approval affect the cryptocurrency market?
A spot Bitcoin ETF provides direct exposure to the cryptocurrency market as opposed to a Futures based-ETF. This means the demand from a spot ETF will be directly linked to the spot market and hence, have a direct impact on price. This explains why the Bitcoin ETF in Europe failed to have a significant impact on Bitcoin.
In case of an approval, a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S will likely pave the way for investors, especially institutions to add BTC to their balance sheets. The wave of demand from a spot ETF can potentially trigger the next rally. That is why it is significant and highly anticipated.