Toncoin bears dominate as volume hits yearly low – Can $2.8 save the bulls?

• TON sits at the base of a bullish triangle but shows signs of breaking lower.
• Selling momentum is rising, while falling demand weakens support and stability.

Toncoin [TON] remained bearish over the past month, declining 8.10%. However, momentum has slowed over the last 24 hours, with a smaller 0.79% drop.

Still, market sentiment suggests a high likelihood of further decline. AMBCrypto analysis gives a clear insight into what could happen.

Support level could be lost on TON

At press time, TON traded directly on a critical support level. A red candle formed just above this zone, signaling a potential breakdown.

This bearish sentiment, along with the candlestick formation, appears within a broader bullish pattern known as the symmetrical triangle.

Source: TradingView

Typically, the bottom support level often serves as a launch point, driving the asset toward the pattern’s peak at $4.9.

However, with a bearish candle forming at support, TON is likely to trade lower.

Key levels to watch for a potential rebound are $2.8, $2.5, and $2.3. The strength of buy orders at these levels will determine whether TON can regain bullish momentum and re-enter the pattern.

Which path will it take?

Using market indicators to gauge potential movement, TON is likely trending toward the lower end of the chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which indicates market trend direction and whether the altcoin is oversold or overbought, signaled a bearish trend.

A bearish trend occurs when the RSI reads between 50 and 30.

TON’s reading stood at 44.21 and trending downward, indicating a further drop is likely.

Source: TradingView

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) backed this view. The MACD line fell to -0.040, while the signal line hovered at -0.021.

The bearish crossover reinforced the seller dominance, hinting that lower lows may follow unless momentum reverses soon.

Users are flocking away

On top of that, TON’s DEX Trading Volume across decentralized exchanges dropped significantly and stood at $3.3 million. That is the lowest this year, as shown on the chart.

Source: Artemis

This sharp decline in activity suggests fading interest in TON’s ecosystem. With fewer users and weaker liquidity, both investor confidence and price stability appear compromised.

Unless on-chain demand returns or technicals reset, TON risks losing key support and drifting further from the bullish triangle.