‘We’re through the down cycle’ – Cathie Wood questions Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

For years, many Bitcoin investors have believed in the “four-year cycle,” a pattern of sharp rises followed by painful crashes.

But ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood says that pattern may no longer apply.

Speaking on CNBC this week, Wood said she believes Bitcoin has already hit its bottom.

Even though many retail investors remain nervous after recent market swings, she argues that this downturn has been the mildest one yet and is already over.

In her view, the market is now setting up for a strong and rapid rise.

She said, 

“We didn’t have much of an upcycle by Bitcoin standards. So we think we’re pretty well through the down cycle here.”

Current market status

Wood’s confidence comes at a tense moment for the market.

Bitcoin [BTC] recently fell to about $77,777, dropping 11% in just one week and erasing gains from the spring 2025 rally.

For many traders, the fall from the October 2025 high of $124,700 back toward April 2025 levels feels like something more serious than a normal pullback.

However, Wood sees it differently.

She views the $80,000–$90,000 range as a key support zone, not a danger area. And, she believes this level will hold and points out that the current 30% drop is relatively mild.

In past four-year cycles, Bitcoin often fell 70% to 80%. Compared to that, she argues, this cycle shows signs of a more mature market.

Mixed technical signals

Despite scary headlines, market data tells a more balanced story.

On the bearish side, momentum indicators like the MACD showed weakness as of press time, reflecting Bitcoin’s steady decline over the past four months.

On the bullish side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into oversold territory. In the past, this has often marked turning points.

At the same time, Bitcoin dominance remained high at nearly 60%, suggesting investors are moving money out of altcoins and into Bitcoin.

Historically, this combination has often come before a strong upward move.

What’s ahead?

While short-term price swings have made many investors nervous, Wood keeps her focus on the long term, especially looking toward 2030.

She believes Bitcoin is gradually winning the competition against gold.

Since 2022, Bitcoin has risen by about 360%, compared with gold’s roughly 170% increase.

Hence, from ARK Invest’s perspective, today’s volatility is just a small part of a much larger shift underway.

In conclusion, Wood believes this built-in scarcity could drive Bitcoin’s total value to $16 trillion by 2030, nearly eight times its current size.

Final Thoughts

• The current pullback looks severe, but in historical context, it remains far smaller than past Bitcoin downturns.
• Institutional capital appears to be altering Bitcoin’s behavior, even if short-term volatility remains unavoidable.