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Why Bitcoin’s run to $28K could only be the beginning

3min Read

To the delight of market participants, the intense accumulation has begun to pay off. But this might not be the end, as Bitcoin could reach $40,000 in Q4.

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  • About $1.17 billion BTC was accumulated in September, driving the king coin up to $28,000.
  • On-chain metrics including Bitcoin’s circulation and exchange flow supported a potential rise to $30,000.

Bitcoin [BTC] began October in scintillating fashion, as the king coin broke past $28,0000. Its price increase also triggered a hike in the values of other cryptocurrencies, leading the broader market cap to reach $1.12 trillion.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024

However, BTC’s increase was not without cause, and Santiment did well to highlight the underlying influences. According to the on-chain analytic platform, addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated a combined $1.17 billion worth of the coin in September.

Going strong regardless

Typically, increased accumulation by both the retail and whale cohorts has a positive impact on most cryptocurrencies. This time, it wasn’t different, with the result starting to show on 1 October.

But Santiment did not stop there. According to its post on X (formerly Twitter) shown above, Bitcoin had more potential to reach $30,000 than to experience a notable drawdown. Interestingly, this projection could be possible, as other on-chain metrics seem to support it.  

For a start, let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s circulation. Up until 29 September, Bitcoin’s circulation was 343,000. At press time, the metric had fallen to 302,000. Circulation shows the number of unique coins used during a period. 

Spikes in this metric may indicate a rise in short-term sell pressure. So, since BTC’s seven-day circulation dropped, it means that the coin may not experience significant sell pressure soon. Hence, a continuation of the price increase is possible.

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio also increased. The MVRV ratio helps to evaluate the tops and bottoms of the Bitcoin market. It also gives an idea if a cryptocurrency is at a fair value, undervalued, or if it’s overpriced.

At the time of writing, the seven-day MVRV ratio was 5.328%, indicating that the market has made some profits. Despite the increase, the metric showed that BTC still has a good potential to move toward $30,000 since the MVRV ratio was not even yet at a 10% increase.

Bitcoin circulation and MVRV ratio

Source: Santiment

Positive conviction neutralizes pessimism

An alternative metric to check for Bitcoin’s potential is the exchange flow. At press time, Bitcoin’s exchange inflow was 1588. This metric measures the number of coins transferred from non-exchange wallets to exchange addresses.

On the other hand, the exchange outflow was 2044. As the opposite of the inflow, the exchange outflow is the number of coins transferred from exchange wallets to external addresses. So, the difference between the metrics is an indication that more participants were willing to HODL than sell.

Bitcoin exchange inflow and outflow

Source: Santiment

How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

Hence, it is unlikely for Bitcoin to lose hold of $28,000. Meanwhile, bears have not given up on BTC despite the price increase. According to research and data analyst, Axel Adler, bearish traders were attempting to push down the market price. So, bulls may need to watch out for that.

On the other end, another analyst, Michaël van de Poppe opined that Bitcoin could hit $40,000 in the last quarter (Q4). He based his projection on the possible ETF approval, and the historical pre-halving rally.


Victor Olanrewaju is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Settled in Lagos, his fascination with blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market arose out of his love of freedom and everything free. As a Nigerian, Victor understands the impact unfounded financial restrictions have on a population. He sees Bitcoin and cryptos as a way to circumvent these obstacles, as a tool for value creation despite all the setbacks. A graduate in Physics, Victor previously worked as a Senior Marketer at Melange Technologies. Before that, he dealt with crypto-marketers on a regular basis in his capacity as Copywriter at Ventrix Media. At AMBCrypto, Victor’s focus is on assessing the real effectiveness of both on-chain and off-chain developments on a project and its community sentiment.
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