Why did CLARITY Act approval odds drop to 50% in just a week?

Efforts to pass the CLARITY Act have repeatedly stalled. Each time momentum builds for its approval, new obstacles emerge. 

On the 23rd of May, Kalshi reported that the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 dropped from nearly 75% last week to 50%.

The likelihood of approval before July 2026 has fallen to 14%, while the chances of passage before August have dropped to 37%.

Commenting on the delay, Senator Cynthia Lummis noted that Wyoming acted before the U.S. federal government could, underscoring the state’s proactive approach. She said, 

Wyoming didn’t wait for Washington to figure out digital assets. We built the framework ourselves. I didn’t come to the U.S. Senate to slow that down, I came here to scale it—and that’s exactly what my bill, the Clarity Act, does.

Interestingly, Polymarket odds appeared to show some positive movement shortly after her remarks. At the time of writing, the chances of the law being passed in 2026 had increased by 16% over the previous month, to 65% once more. 

What is driving the disparity?

That said, there could be several reasons for these disparate approval odds related to the CLARITY Act.

On the 14th of May, during a markup session, the Senate Banking Committee passed the CLARITY Act by a vote of 15 to 9. However, numerous amendments are to be made before the final floor vote. Meanwhile, the influential banking lobby continues to push for a ban on stablecoin yield and raises complex ethical concerns. 

More recently, analysts have raised concerns about the possible effects of “yield-bearing” stablecoins, stating that they may upset established banking models. JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum echoed this caution, emphasizing the risks of allowing stablecoins to generate yield. 

Final Summary

• The CLARITY Act odds on prediction market declines suggest losing optimism around the approval.
• Senator Lummis’s stance on Wyoming suggests that some are still optimistic of the CLARITY Act.