Bitcoin, at the time of writing, was trading above $39,000 on the charts, with there being evidence of institutional buying even at the said price level. Bitcoin’s press time highs came after the cryptocurrency crossed the $37,000-mark after nearly three weeks. Though there has been volatility and network momentum in Bitcoin’s price rally since October 2020, the crypto-asset was largely range-bound was much of January.
When the price dropped below $35,000 for the first time after hitting a new ATH above $40,000, there were fears that Bitcoin’s price would not hit the S2F and S2Fx model targets based on PlanB’s model. Interestingly, post the third halving, Bitcoin’s price looked similar to what it was like between the 2012 and 2016 track on Bitcoin‘s price chart.
It should be noted here that the S2F target is $100k and the S2Fx target is $288k, based on the charts. The targets are considered an average price, and the price is expected to oscillate around the target price. Plan B expects the 2021 bull run to continue, and follow a trajectory like 2017. If that happens, the target would be $100k.
However, the current bull run might really be more similar to the one in 2013. This is the reason why Plan B has now updated the target from $100k to $288k, based on the S2Fx model.
Plan B’s target of $288K comes at a time when the number of Bitcoin whales is up and growing every week, irrespective of Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin addresses holding >1000 BTC have grown exponentially, based on data from Glassnode. In the last week of December 2020, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges was increasing, and there were more HODLers and miners booking unrealized profits.
However, based on Glassnode’s data, the volume of Bitcoin on exchanges is dropping again as well. Since this is limiting supply, it may keep Bitcoin’s price on track with the S2F model’s predictions. Though there are metrics that point to an upcoming price correction, an extended price rally also seems likely.
Though there is a lot of anticipation about whether the outcome will be different this time around, no one really knows what will happen since the cycle is different. While a price rally is still in play, there has been nearly no price discovery beyond $40,000.
In fact, Max Keiser, Co-founder of Heisenberg Capital, has also set Bitcoin’s price target to be $2,20,000, in line with the S2Fx model by Plan B. Ergo, Plan B’s models are not the only ones setting a target in the $2,00,000-range and above, and the institutional demand and “digital gold” narratives might just be increasing the probability of hitting the target in 2021.