Why the altcoin market remains under pressure—and what could spark a recovery
The altcoins did not have a bull market as many people expected in the second half of 2025.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was in extreme fear territory with a reading of 15. It has been below 30 throughout June, and showing fear remained the dominant market sentiment.
According to CoinGlass liquidation data, $980 million worth of leveraged positions were wiped out on Tuesday, June 23. Although liquidations eased toward the weekend, the earlier wipeout underscored the market’s bearish tone.
AMBCrypto reported that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was above 100 for the first time since Q2 2025. It signaled investors’ capital was fleeing to safety, and did not bode well for crypto.
The TOTAL3 on TradingView tracks the altcoin market capitalization, excluding Ethereum [ETH]. It reached just above the 2021 highs at $1.13 trillion but had begun to crater at the beginning of October 2025.
At the time of writing, the 200-week moving average at $634 billion was about to be tested as support. Though the moving averages signaled upward momentum in the higher timeframes, investor caution is warranted when it comes to buying altcoins.
The alarming bearish momentum is ruling over the altcoin market
In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that 84% of the altcoins trading on Binance were priced below their 200-day moving averages.
As the TOTAL3 chart earlier highlighted, the state of the altcoin market has been extremely pessimistic for a few months now. The altcoins did not have a bull market as many people expected in the second half of 2025, as Bitcoin [BTC] ran beyond $120k but not much higher.
The bear market has put BTC through a 53.8% correction in under 10 months, helping explain the strain on the altcoin sector as a whole.
Another analyst, Ruga Research, showed that the 60-day change of the Tether [USDT] market cap has come to -$3.55 billion. It means that, over a rolling 60-day window, stablecoin redemptions were higher than issuance.
This meant the dry powder waiting on the sidelines to buy the dip was contracting. It signaled investor exhaustion, and a reversal need not be immediate.
The analyst observed that the drop to extreme loads the buying setup, but a recovery back above zero would trigger the buy signal.
Therefore, long-term investors can wait for signs of market revival, such as stablecoin expansion, to point toward a broader market recovery before looking to buy.
Final Summary
- The altcoin market sentiment continued to be extremely pessimistic.
- Capital fleeing from the market has to stabilize, and confidence must improve before retail investors can gain some certainty in a crypto market recovery.
