Bitcoin Cash [BCH], despite a strong run this year, could face another major decline that drives the asset toward $100, according to new on-chain insight.
Data across the spot and perpetual markets point to building selling pressure, with key indicators flashing the risk of a deeper move lower.
Bitcoin Cash faces a possible 50% decline
The Aloha on-chain signal, an indicator that has marked the tops and bottoms of asset prices on multiple occasions, shows that neither target has been met for BCH so far.
At press time, data from Alphractal places BCH in the middle of that range, between its top and bottom. Joao Wedson, senior analyst and founder of Alphractal, said he would not be surprised by a further BCH drop despite the asset’s record.
“Even with this impressive track record, I would not be surprised if BCH still falls further.”
If a drop materializes, the signal indicates the price would likely find a floor near $100—the level that typically marks its bottom—roughly 50% below where it trades now.
Wedson added that nothing guarantees the decline, noting that “no market ever gives certainty.” However, AMBCrypto reviewed the wider spot and derivatives data to gauge how that move could play out.
BCH whales place large orders but lean short
CryptoQuant data shows near-neutral sentiment across BCH’s spot and perpetual markets, though two indicators stand out and point to a rising risk of a bearish move. The average whale order size shows large holders firmly in control, averaging 229.96 BCH, about $44,688 at press time.
That control raises concern because the market’s funding rate has flipped to a negative 0.0028%, suggesting most perpetual-market capital sits in short positions.
The spot cumulative volume delta tells a similar story, with selling volume outpacing buying. The spot CVD shows taker sellers dominating the market, a trend that has held for weeks alongside BCH’s decline.
If the metric stays in that bearish direction, it would weigh on price and could extend BCH’s losses well below current levels, though it does not confirm a fall to $100.
BCH decouples from Bitcoin
BCH has broken away from Bitcoin, with the 20-day correlation coefficient sliding to 0.24 after holding near 1.0 through much of May and early June.
That reading marks a weak positive link rather than the near-lockstep movement of prior weeks; the two assets have largely stopped trading in tandem, though they are not yet moving inversely.
The breakdown matters because BCH has fallen hard, dropping from above $600 late last year to around $200. If the de-correlation holds while Bitcoin trades sideways or rallies, BCH could extend its slide on its own, or the relationship could snap back.
For now, the prospect of a short-term BCH decline remains in place, leaving the asset exposed to further downside.
Final Summary
- Analysts say Bitcoin Cash could lose roughly half its value, sliding from around $200 toward the $100 mark, though no one is calling that drop a certainty.
- BCH has started moving on its own rather than shadowing Bitcoin, which means its next move may not follow the broader market in either direction.