Will U.S. Bitcoin ETFs pass Satoshi Nakamoto’s BTC holdings in 2025?

• BlackRock’s BTC ETF has now become the third-largest Bitcoin holder.
• Projections suggested that Bitcoin ETFs could surpass top holders, including Nakamoto, by late 2025.

The growth of Bitcoin [BTC] Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has been significant, with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF now positioned as the third-largest BTC holder worldwide, just behind Grayscale.

Fidelity’s FBTC fund is ranked ninth, while Satoshi Nakamoto remains at the forefront. This shift underscores the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin through ETF investments. 

Bitcoin ETF update

According to the latest update from Farside Investors, BTC ETFs experienced a net inflow of $27.8 million on the 12th of August, with total net inflows reaching $17.369 billion since their inception.

Among these, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF stood out, having attracted a notable $20.330 billion in net inflows since its launch.

In contrast, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF has faced outflows totaling $19.462 billion over the same period.

Seeing the rise in Blackrock’s BTC ETF investment, Bloomberg’s senior analyst Eric Balchunas took to X (formerly Twitter) and said, 

“Didn’t realize US ETFs are on track to pass Satoshi in bitcoin held in October. BlackRock alone is already #3 and on pace to be #1 late next year, and will likely stay there for a very long time Ht @EdmondsonShaun.” 

Source: Eric Balchunas

This indicated that Bitcoin ETFs might surpass the current leading holders by late 2025.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s BTC holdings

Currently, Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous founder of Bitcoin, is estimated to hold about 1.1 million BTC, making him the largest individual holder.

BTC ETFs, excluding Grayscale, collectively possess around 645,899 BTC, with total U.S. ETF holdings exceeding 900,000 BTC.

Despite ongoing debate about Nakamoto’s exact holdings, the anticipated rise of Bitcoin ETFs reflected a notable shift in the cryptocurrency market. 

Highlighting the transformative impact of BTC ETFs, Spencer Hakimian, Founder of Tolou Capital Management, remarked, 

“People underestimate how reluctant institutions were to own Bitcoin on exchanges. Owning via ETF is a game changer. Allows risk averse institutions to own Bitcoin finally. Game changer.” 

In the meantime, while Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant momentum since their debut, BTC itself has had a tumultuous journey in 2024.

The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $73K earlier in the year. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is on an upward trend, approaching $60K after a period of bearish movement.