XRP breaks above $1.15 – But THESE 3 signals question the rally

Can whale activity alone decide XRP’s next move?

From a technical standpoint, XRP has been one of the strongest altcoins this week, rallying more than 3% as the broader market flipped back into risk-on mode.

Notably, improving DeFi activity has backed the move, with stablecoin supply on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) edging closer to the $1 billion mark.

On the chart, XRP has reclaimed the $1.15 level, marking its first meaningful bullish breakout since early May.

More importantly, this rally hasn’t come out of nowhere.

As the chart below shows, XRP’s move back above $1.15 lines up well with recent wallet activity.

According to Santiment, whales and sharks holding between 100,000 and 100 million XRP have increased their holdings by 2.8% over the past five weeks. In other words, larger holders have been accumulating in strength, while the price is finally starting to catch up. 

Meanwhile, the other side of the data tells a similar story. 

As the chart above shows, wallets holding less than 0.01 XRP have reduced their balances by 5.2% over the same period. Historically, though, Ripple [XRP] has tended to follow the behavior of its biggest holders rather than the smallest retail wallets, making this divergence another point in favor of the current rally. 

But what if retail isn’t selling for no reason? Instead, it could be an early sign that the market is starting to price in risks that whale accumulation alone can’t offset. If that gap starts to close, the current bullish setup could weaken much faster than expected. 

XRP’s next move depends on more than whale accumulation

Sure, XRP ETFs have kicked off the week on a positive note. 

Bitwise’s spot XRP ETF pulled in $2.49 million in net inflows on Monday, the 20th of July, while every other issuer remained flat.

But one strong day doesn’t change the bigger picture. Spot XRP ETF demand has cooled noticeably over the past few weeks, with inflows remaining well below the levels seen in April and May 2026. In other words, institutional participation still hasn’t kept pace with XRP’s latest breakout.

Against that backdrop, the chart below becomes much more important.

Upbit’s weekly XRP trading volume has fallen 51%, from 530 million to 258 million XRP, while Binance spot flows have dropped by nearly 99%, pointing to fading spot participation.

At the same time, derivatives traders are becoming more aggressive. Binance XRP open interest has risen 5.9% to $423.8 million, pushing leverage ratios to recent highs.

In other words, more of XRP’s rally is now being driven by leveraged positions than fresh spot buying.

In that context, the recent retail exit doesn’t seem like a fluke. Instead, it could be an early sign that spot interest is fading, making XRP’s upside look more like a short-term rotation than the start of a broader structural trend. That naturally puts the recent buildup in leverage under the spotlight.

If spot demand continues to cool while leverage keeps climbing, XRP’s breakout could struggle to hold. In that scenario, the current bull run risks turning into a classic bull trap.

Final Summary

• Whale buying and a strong technical breakout are supporting XRP’s rally.
• But weak ETF demand and rising leverage could put the breakout at risk.