Analysis
XRP: Which way to move? Investors may consider these options
Posted:
| Last updated: January 30th, 2024
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XRP finally saw a bearish crossover of the 20 EMA with the 50 EMA on its daily chart as the alt finds renewed selling pressure. Since breaking out of its long-term down-channel (white) in February, the Point of Control (POC, red) saw a fierce clash between the buyers and sellers.
While the $0.7 two-month support stood sturdy, the 20 EMA positioned itself to stall a possible recovery in the short term. At press time, XRP traded at $0.7051.
XRP Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, XRP/USDT
In its descent from November highs, XRP fell below some vital supports (now resistances) and hit its 11-month support at the $0.6-level on 22 January. Since then, it saw a 68.4% growth until the end of March.
Over the last three months, the immediate trendline support (white, dashed) has offered strong support for the buyers until the sellers flipped it to resistance on 5 April. To top it up, the EMA ribbons undertook a bearish flip as the 20 EMA looked south.
Historically, a 20/50EMA bearish crossover has resulted in the price struggling to break the shackles of its immediate resistance. But since the price traded near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BB), it could see a slight recovery in the coming days that could find a hurdle at the $0.75-$77 range.
A fall from this range could lead to a retest of the $0.7-level. A fall below the $0.7-mark, however, would be detrimental to the long-term bullish recovery hopes.
Rationale
Source: TradingView, XRP/USDT
Over the last two days, the RSI fell to test the 33-support. A fall below this level would propel a 29-mark retest before the bulls swoop in to alter the trend.
Also, the Aroon up (yellow) finally saw a change in its direction after hitting its floor. Thus, a short-term price recovery from the current base is plausible. Nevertheless, the current scenario for the alt could not hold up a strong directional trend, as evidenced by the ADX line.
Conclusion
Considering the oversold readings on its BB and a likely improvement on its Aroon up, XRP could see a short-term recovery. But with the EMA ribbons looking south, the $0.75-$0.77 range could pose serious barriers for bulls.
Moreover, keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s movement and the broader sentiment would be vital to complement this analysis.
