XRP’s bullish setup – Examining odds of altcoin hitting its mid-term target
XRP may be close to a critical breakout as speculation rises, but weak network activity could limit upside.
- Spot taker buy volume has been strong, despite XRP’s declining transaction count and network growth
- Rising NVT and Stock-to-Flow ratios suggested that speculative pressure outweighed on-chain utility
XRP has been trading within a large symmetrical triangle pattern lately – One that has taken shape since its explosive surge in late 2024. In fact, the price seemed to be forming higher lows and lower highs, coiling tightly towards the apex of the structure.
At press time, XRP was trading at $2.19, just above the key support at $2.08, with the major resistances at $2.35 and $2.61 still intact.
The narrowing range suggested that a decisive move may be approaching. Therefore, if buyers manage to flip the $2.35–$2.61 zone, XRP could validate the breakout and trigger renewed bullish momentum.
Are bulls quietly accumulating as taker buy volume stays dominant?
Despite XRP’s stagnant price movement, the 90-day Spot Taker CVD revealed consistent taker buy dominance – A sign that market buyers have been stepping in aggressively.
This also suggested that participants have been anticipating a breakout and may be willing to accumulate in anticipation of a strong move.
However, this speculative buy-side activity seemed to be in sharp contrast with declining on-chain metrics, creating a mismatch between market conviction and blockchain usage.
Still, the persistence of taker buy volume may support short-term price stability and provide a base for any explosive upside movement if the triangle pattern resolves upwards.
Why is XRP’s network activity collapsing amid bullish sentiment?
XRP’s transaction count dropped steeply to 383K, marking one of its lowest daily values since March.
Additionally, network growth declined to just 892 too, reflecting reduced adoption and declining interest from new users.
Such a drop in organic activity is concerning, especially as bullish sentiment rises across the market. Simply put, while traders may be betting on an upside breakout, the underlying network health appeared to be weakening.
If this trend continues, it could undermine the sustainability of any upward price movement driven purely by speculation rather than user demand.
Is XRP overvalued? NVT ratio spikes raise utility concerns
The NVT Ratio, which compares market cap to daily transaction volume, surged to an extreme level of 4510. Such a sharp spike hinted that the valuation has outpaced actual on-chain utility, raising questions about XRP’s fundamental value.
When the NVT ratio climbs this high, it typically means that investor speculation has been inflating the price beyond its usage. This usually creates a risky imbalance.
Unless transaction volume rises in tandem, XRP may face pressure from overvaluation. Especially as investors reassess its real-world applications versus its press time price.
Can rising scarcity support XRP’s price despite weak demand?
The Stock-to-Flow ratio has sharply risen too, indicating greater scarcity as new supply entered the market at a slower rate. Such a dynamic typically supports long-term price appreciation.
However, in XRP’s case, the scarcity narrative has not been matched by growing demand or utility. Therefore, the imbalance may only be sustainable if network activity rebounds or institutional demand materializes.
Until then, scarcity alone may not be sufficient to push XRP significantly higher. Price may remain volatile if fundamentals don’t begin to catch up with speculative valuation.
Will XRP’s compression end with a bullish explosion?
XRP’s long-term triangle pattern and rising buy-side volume mean that a major breakout could occur soon.
However, on-chain weaknesses pose serious challenges to a sustainable rally. The coming weeks will be decisive.
If the price breaks above the triangle with strong volume and on-chain metrics begin to recover, XRP could indeed reach its midterm target. Otherwise, the breakout may prove short-lived.
