XRP’s tight wedge persists: 3 major risks traders must watch

• XRP MVRV Z-score fell to 2.57, showing reduced unrealized profits and a lower likelihood of mass profit-taking.
• Long liquidations at $6.83M suggest a failed breakout as the price stays below the $2.50 resistance.

Ripple’s [XRP] recent momentum has faded following multiple attempts to reclaim higher ground. At press time, the altcoin was trading at $2.35, down 3.26% over the last 24 hours. 

Despite a strong rebound off mid-range levels, XRP remains trapped inside a descending wedge on the weekly chart. 

Price movement continues within the narrowing structure, while on-chain indicators reflect mixed signals across valuation, sentiment, and trading behavior.

Several metrics are starting to diverge, reflecting uncertainty around XRP’s short-term direction.

Valuation metrics diverge as profit-taking cools and usage lags

The MVRV Z-score dropped to 2.57, far below the overheated levels recorded earlier in the year. This drop signals that unrealized profits have declined, reducing the likelihood of mass profit-taking in the near term. 

With sell-side pressure easing, price volatility could cool further.

Such neutral MVRV levels often align with a phase of accumulation or consolidation, especially when price approaches key structural thresholds. 

However, the NVT Ratio surged to 838, suggesting that market cap growth is outstripping on-chain transactional activity. This surge typically indicates that valuation is expanding faster than network usage, creating a gap between price and utility. 

Without a corresponding rise in transaction volumes, this imbalance could weaken the fundamental support for further upside. 

Leverage resets as short-term activity slows across XRP markets

Liquidation data from the 17th of May showed $6.83 million in long liquidations versus only $481K in shorts. This indicates that bullish traders overextended their positions, only to face swift market rejection. 

The imbalance suggests multiple failed breakout attempts, where buyers struggled to sustain upward momentum before being pushed back.

The 1d–7d Realized Cap HODL Wave fell to 0.96, signaling reduced short-term token movement. This often signals waning speculation and a shift to holding behavior.

Lower wave activity often precedes periods of stabilization, as short-term churn gives way to longer-term holding. 

Price structure shows XRP is coiling for a breakout or breakdown

XRP continues to trade within a narrowing descending wedge pattern, with resistance forming near $2.50 and support levels positioned around $2.12 and $1.61. 

At the time of writing, the price was approaching the wedge’s upper boundary, but still lacks a convincing breakout.

The Stochastic RSI, at 28.38, has turned up slightly from oversold territory, indicating early signs of momentum recovery. 

Price remains in a tightening structure that often precedes directional shifts, depending on volume and external confirmation.

XRP’s on-chain and technical structure reflects a mix of cooling sell pressure, valuation concerns, and weakened bullish momentum. 

While some metrics show reduced speculation and holding stability, others point to gaps between price and network activity. 

Whether the current structure results in a breakout or another phase of contraction remains open, as no strong directional signal has yet emerged.