Bitcoin is trading close to $38000, and the break from the rangebound price level came as a relief earlier this week. On Tuesday, the price hit $37000 and trading beyond $35000 allowed Bitcoin’s price rally to break away from the resistance. As traders gear up to predict the impact of the current price trend on future rallies, it is important to note that the ongoing price rally is not useful enough in itself for the prediction of future tops for Bitcoin’s price. Other metrics like active addresses and distribution are critical to the same.
With 22 million active addresses in January 2021, Bitcoin made history. And this number surpassed the ATH from December 2017. Dubbed “digital gold”, despite its decoupling from Gold, for retail traders Bitcoin continues to compete with it. Gold’s price trend turned further negative as the USD strengthened against it and selling pressure on it continues to increase, against Bitcoin’s rising adoption and demand. Even a price correction has proven to be inadequate to draw in investors to Gold.
Bitcoin is more lucrative and attracted a larger pool of institutional investors in the past few weeks on account of the promising results on company balance sheets, and appreciation in its stock price. Out of the 22 million active addresses, over 60% of the active supply is controlled by large investors – institutions and whales. The remaining 40% by retail traders, based on data from Glassnode.
The above chart shows the accumulation of Bitcoins at various price levels and this accumulation has changed more significantly after the third halving. 22 million active investors, consistently generated demand from institutions, and near equitable distribution has boosted. The boost in distribution has contributed to the increased volatility and demand on spot and derivatives exchanges. Though institutions do not exactly buy through exchange order books, the increasing outflow noted recently, signals a positive change in sentiment and price rally. Higher adoption from retail may have a significant impact, due to 40% control of the active supply.
The increased accumulation above $30000 initially suggested strong support at $30000 from institutions and whales. Additionally, since the buying has continued beyond $35000, it is likely that the price remains rangebound above $35000 and its current valuation is a testament to the same. Therefore the increase in addresses and demand from institutions might have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price rally in the following weeks.