3 roads lie ahead for Bitcoin – Which one will BTC choose?

• Bitcoin’s momentum ratio outlined three potential scenarios for BTC’s next leg.
• Given that a correction has already occurred, a deeper pullback is less probable.

Bitcoin [BTC] started May off with bullish momentum, closing at $97,406. 

This breakout above a critical resistance level strengthens the bull case, especially given BTC’s previous inability to sustain above this threshold since late February.

However, the move also introduces bearish implications. Bitcoin’s price now sits above the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price.

On the 22nd of April, this shift pushed 155-day-old BTC from an underwater position to an unrealized profit state. 

The STH realized price, now at $93,342, represents the average on-chain cost basis for these holders, establishing a significant support floor for Bitcoin.

So, while a new all-time high appears within striking distance, expecting a smooth, uninterrupted ascent would still be premature.

Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next rally

Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler highlighted three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaking the critical $97k overhead supply barrier.

At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum sits in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at approximately 0.8 (80%). 

This means the market is positioned for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks.

If the momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and maintains that level, key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would signal a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price into the $150k–$175k range. 

Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, STHs would start cashing out, leading to a potential correction to the $70k–$85k range.

In the third scenario, if the ratio holds in the 0.8-1.0 range, BTC will likely stay in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k.

In this scenario, market participants would hold their positions, but significant new exposure or buying pressure wouldn’t materialize.

BTC’s most likely next move

In the bullish scenario, if Bitcoin’s momentum ratio climbs above 1.0 and sustains, we could see a rally toward the $150k–$175k range, echoing previous macro cycles. 

In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, while in 2021, it tripled after breaking prior highs – both cycles marked by NUPL and MVRV ratios entering euphoric zones. 

At press time, the MVRV sat at 2.16 — well below the 3.9 threshold historically seen near market tops. Hence, there’s still headroom before reaching overvaluation.

This implies that the current market is not yet in a euphoric phase.

Similarly, NUPL was holding at 0.54, indicating early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would align with past bull market peaks, suggesting room for further upside. 

However, if sustained buying pressure fails to emerge, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k–$110k becomes more likely, especially with resistance-driven corrections. 

That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback.

Keep an eye on these indicators, as they hold the key to Bitcoin’s next move.