- SUI was down nearly 21% since its early May peak, with bulls repeatedly failing to establish support.
- The recent 44 million token unlock could go one of the two ways.
Sui [SUI] started off June with its usual token unlock, dropping 44 million tokens, amounting to 2% of the total supply, into the market.
Naturally, this raises the question: How well is the market handling all the new supply? From a technical perspective, the timing is rough.
After peaking at $4.15 in early May (finally breaking out after four months stuck below), SUI has slid nearly 21%. Even Bitcoin [BTC] hitting fresh all-time highs couldn’t spark a meaningful bounce.
What’s even more telling? Every time the bulls have tried to push back, they’ve been slapped down. Three attempts to build a solid support base have all failed. It’s clear the bears are running the show now.
With price action this choppy, the recent 44 million SUI unlock could go one of two ways. If strong bid-side demand kicks in, we could see shorts get caught wrong-footed and a juicy short squeeze unfold.
But if that demand doesn’t show up? A deeper retracement is definitely on the cards. And with support looking shaky at best, a slip below the $3 mark isn’t out of the question.
SUI’s on-chain activity signals a growing split
According to data from CryptoQuant, SUI’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD just flipped green for the first time since last year’s “Trump Pump.”
It is the same surge that catapulted SUI to its all-time high of $5.36 back in January.
A green CVD is a sign of genuine buying pressure returning to the spot market after a long dry spell, signaling that investors are starting to accumulate SUI once again.
But the plot thickens — Since the 22nd of May, SUI’s Futures Taker CVD has remained stubbornly red, reflecting persistent selling pressure as shorts bet on further downside.
This divergence creates a classic bullish setup. Spot bulls are accumulating while Futures shorts have been piling in, priming the market for a potential short squeeze.
Notably, the recent 44 million token unlock appears to have reestablished meaningful bid support.
If demand sustains, SUI could soon test resistance near $3.50, paving the way for a push toward $4 in the near term.