Is Bitcoin’s halving a ‘sell the news event that is already priced in?’
The fourth Bitcoin halving is "symbolic" from other cycles, but short-term sell pressure still looms.
- Kraken’s exec sees the halving as symbolic in terms of supply impact and usage
- Some market watchers expect some short-term drawdown
After much anticipation, Bitcoin’s [BTC] fourth halving is finally done and dusted. For its part, there is no doubt that the 2024 cycle has been an outlier, especially since BTC hit a new all-time high of $73.7k on the charts, right before the halving.
According to Kraken’s Head of Strategy Thomas Perfumo, the fourth halving cycle has other unique and “symbolic” features as well. In a recent interview, the exec said,
“But this one is the most symbolic, in my opinion, in Bitcoin’s history and even looking forward. Because, at the time, when you have people looking at their conventional currencies, inflation, interest rates and the economic environment they live in, they see this alternative form of currency, Bitcoin.”
Adding to the unique impact of the fourth halving on Bitcoin’s supply schedule, he noted,
“When the halving takes place, 94% of the Bitcoin that will ever exist will have been mined. And we’ll see less than 1% inflation in the circulating supply of Bitcoin going forward.”
BTC’s price prospects in the short-term
Most markets expect heightened sell pressure after the halving. In another separate interview, Mizuho Securities Managing Director Dan Dolev claimed the halving will be a “sell-the-news” event.
Citing the immense publicity around the 2024 halving compared to past cycles, he said,
“Bitcoin was already fully priced in. It’s kind of a sell-the-news event at this point. I think once the event actually happens, there’s going to be a run for the exit.”
In early April, BitMEX’s founder echoed similar projections, citing the U.S tax season as a catalyst for liquidity crunch around the halving.
Geopolitical risks could further add to the bearish sentiment. Especially since reports indicate that tensions in the Middle East could escalate after Israel and Iran attacked each other.
If so, the short-term sell pressure could clear key support levels after the halving event. However, BTC’s price remains wildly volatile. Hence, it could continue to swing between its pre-existing support and resistance levels, even after the halving.
