ONDO: Will the $840M token unlock trigger a supply shock?
The unlock will account for 57% of released supply.
Ondo Finance [ONDO] is heading into a big month, with 1.9 billion tokens scheduled to unlock. Token releases don’t move prices alone, but they still check the overall market mood.
For ONDO, it’s about who owns the tokens, how they acted before, and if buying demand can handle the supply that’s coming.
A supply shock is arriving!
On the 18th of January, roughly 1.9 billion ONDO tokens (worth over $840 million at current prices) are set to unlock, according to Tokenomist data.
This accounts for over 57% of the released supply, making it a big test for the market.
The tokens will be allocated to founders, team members, community pools, and private investors, groups that often operate with very different incentives.
Team-heavy unlocks tend to create more sell pressure than ecosystem-focused releases. This is because early holders look to realize gains.
The focus will be on how much of this supply the market can realistically absorb.
Derivatives lean long, but cautiously
At press time, ONDO’s Open Interest (OI) has gone up to $77 million, so positioning has built up ahead of the unlock. At the same time, Funding Rates were positive.
Therefore, traders were leaning long without aggressive leverage.
High OI into a major unlock can amplify moves in any direction. If spot demand holds, long positions may stay. But if selling pressure picks up, crowded trades can unwind quickly.
Beyond ONDO…
ONDO’s unlock is part of a much larger January supply event.
More than $5.5 billion in tokens are set to enter circulation this month, with ONDO, Bitget [BGB], Hyperliquid [HYPE], and Official Trump [TRUMP] making up the largest releases.
Around $2.5 billion will arrive through cliff unlocks, hitting the market all at once, while another $3 billion will be released gradually.
After ONDO, BGB will unlock nearly $500 million in tokens later this month, mostly for team and promotions. HYPE has a smaller but closer release, with tokens worth $327 million.
How much new supply can the market absorb at once? We’ll find out soon enough!
Final Thoughts
- ONDO faces a test as $840 million worth of tokens hit the market on the 18th.
- Price direction now depends on whether real demand can absorb a 57% supply unlock without panic selling.
