Bitcoin’s price tests $80K – Why $402M BTC ETF outflows threaten ‘Uptober’
The Bitcoin regime score needs to push above zero, and the price needs to recover back above $83.2k and $84k resistance to signal a recovery.
On the 7th and 8th of October, the crypto long liquidations totaled a remarkable $1.707 billion. Since the market rally began in mid-August, bears have largely borne the brunt of liquidation events.
For example, there were $924.8 billion in short liquidations on the 21st of September, and $1.259 billion worth of short liquidations on the 21st of August.
The sudden turnaround was part of the Bitcoin [BTC] correction that was extending toward the $80k mark and could go lower.
The anticipated “Uptober” has gotten off to a rocky start. The spot ETF BTC flows in October were a negative $401.9 million already, as BTC faced a 1.93% drawdown for the month.
FOMC Minutes confirm tightening stance, deflating market sentiment
The minutes of the September 15-16 FOMC highlighted the reason behind the 25 bps interest rate hike last month. The primary reason was insufficient progress in lowering inflation.
Fed staff do not expect inflation to return to 2% by 2029, and have raised their inflation forecast for 2026-2028. New data confirming price pressure will strengthen the case for further rate hikes.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that after the Fed minutes were released, Bitcoin prices held at around $83.4k for a while before falling to $82.8k just 10 hours later.
The price decline began before the minutes were released, and the tightening stance the release confirmed likely reinforced the bearish view.
Notably, the Bitcoin Regime Score remained in negative territory. If the current reading of -22 falls below -30, the regime would shift in favor of sellers.
Bitcoin short sellers gain prevalence
The Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance has fallen to -0.00215 as of writing, the lowest level since last January. This decline reflected the caution around Bitcoin price trends and the increased willingness to bet on continued selling, observed crypto analyst ArabChain on CryptoQuant.
Moreover, the Funding Rate was well below the 30-day Moving Average at +0.00458. This signals a marked change in derivatives market participant behavior.
There was evidence of whale accumulation and BTC outflow from exchanges, but the short-term bias remains bearish.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin price decline had already started when the Fed minutes were released, confirming the tightening stance.
- The Bitcoin regime score needs to push above zero, and the price needs to reclaim $83.2k to signal a recovery.
