Wall Street’s Black Friday — Is a 2022-style crypto winter brewing?

November is kicking off with unprecedented levels of market volatility.

The past 24 hours have been one big bloodbath. Tech stocks have been hit particularly hard. Over the last 24 hours, markets in the U.S, Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan have combined to wipe $1.7 trillion off their market cap. This, after a flurry of earnings reports kicked off the “AI bubble” narrative again. 

The key takeaway? The market got a reality check. For instance, Alphabet lost more than 12% of its market value, highlighting just how quickly sentiment can turn when AI expectations collide with earnings reality.

However, it is the timing of this sell-off that is adding another layer of pressure to the crypto market.

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the probability of a Democratic sweep in next week’s U.S mid-term elections has risen by 7% to a record high of 72% over the last 2 days. This, as markets continue to accelerate their decline, adding another layer of macroeconomic uncertainty for the crypto market.

This leaves us with high rates, a falling stock market, $100+ oil prices, and rising CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation. Next week is going to be interesting, to say the least. 

However, the market isn’t entirely bearish just yet. 

Crypto’s 2022 playbook returns as market volatility builds

It’s been over a year since the October 2025 crash knocked down risk assets.

Bitcoin is still down over 30% from its pre-crash high of $126K. Considering the FUD surrounding U.S mid-terms, the Binance hack and recent tech sell-off, it seems the market still has a long way to go before any real recovery. This puts the question of whether crypto has found its bottom back in focus. 

Notably, the 2022 cycle could offer some clues. Back then, the FTX collapse was just about a year after BTC’s November 2021 high, lining up with the cycle bottom in late Q4 2022, when BTC dropped to $16K. What followed was a 155% rally, followed by another 120% run, pushing Bitcoin close to $108K by 2024.

So, could the ongoing volatility be setting crypto up for a 2022-style cycle?

Based on historical trends, Bitcoin falling below $80K and the overall market sell-off could allude to later phases of a crypto bottom. With macro uncertainty continuing to build, the market could be heading into the final stage of capitulation before a bounce back.

Thus, the risk-off trend will likely continue through year-end before the crypto sees a 2023-style uptrend.

Final Summary

• Weak tech earnings and AI bubble fears have triggered a $1.7 trillion market sell-off, putting pressure on crypto.

• Bitcoin’s drop below $80K could signal a 2022-style bottom, with recovery still some way off.