- Bitcoin dominance remained strong, but oversold altcoin conditions signal a potential rebound.
- The Altcoin Seasonality Index was at extreme lows, suggesting altcoins may be poised for recovery.
Since the start of 2025, Bitcoin [BTC] has overshadowed the market, drawing liquidity away from altcoins and leaving them in a prolonged slump.
Now, a key metric suggests that this trend may be reaching an inflection point. The Altcoin Seasonality Index has plunged to historically low levels, hinting at extreme oversold conditions.
With Bitcoin dominance holding firm but momentum showing signs of fatigue, is a long-awaited resurgence finally on the horizon?
2025 so far: The year of Bitcoin
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has been on a steady uptrend since early 2025, highlighting its strong influence on the crypto market. Starting the year at around 57%, BTC.D gradually climbed, reaching over 64% by early February.
This rise coincided with Bitcoin’s rally, which drew liquidity away from altcoins and reinforced its market dominance.
Source: TradingView
After peaking, BTC.D retraced, finding support at 60% and stabilizing near 61.38% in March.
The market is at a pivotal moment, if Bitcoin dominance remains around these levels, alts may continue to face challenges. However, a drop below 60% could indicate a shift toward alts, potentially marking the beginning of the long-anticipated altseason.
The drop: What does it mean for alts?
The Altcoin Seasonality Index has plunged to 18, nearing extreme lows not seen since Bitcoin’s dominance began surging in early 2025. Altcoin metrics peaked in December 2024, aligning with BTC.D’s temporary pullback.
However, since then, Bitcoin has absorbed market liquidity, suppressing altcoin performance.
Source: X
Historically, such deep retracements in the index have marked critical inflection points, where oversold conditions pave the way for a shift in capital rotation.
While Bitcoin continues to dictate the trend, the current downturn in altcoin seasonality suggests a potential bottoming-out phase. If sentiment shifts and risk appetite returns, this could set the stage for an impending rebound.
Altcoins: Moving forward
With the Altcoin Seasonality Index now at 18, traders are watching for signs of a reversal. Previous dips to similar levels in early 2024 and mid-2023 preceded strong alt recoveries.
However, for a true shift, Bitcoin dominance needs to show weakness, and liquidity must flow back into altcoins.
If altcoins show stronger relative performance compared to Bitcoin, it could signal the beginning of a relief rally.
However, cautious optimism is advised, as external factors and recent regulatory developments – quite a few of those, these days – may continue to impact market dynamics.
That said, oversold conditions hint that altcoins could soon recover and regain lost ground.
