Aptos rallies 10% – Why 11.31M token unlock could test APT bulls
Why is Aptos' burn rate insufficient to sustain its rally?
Aptos [APT] surged by more than 10% in the past 24 hours, at press time, with daily trading volume surpassing $109 million.
Apart from the technical breakout, the altcoin’s gains were being fueled by a continuous supply crunch since its fee switch. Here is how reduced supply influenced the rally:
Decoding Aptos token burns after the 10x fee increase
In the past seven days, RWA net flows have driven Aptos’s network activity. In fact, Aptos ranked second with $145 million, closely behind Ethereum [ETH] at $149 million.
Additionally, the number of transactions and active addresses showed participants were returning to the chain. On the 3rd of September, Active Addresses were 57,047, while transactions surged beyond 16 million.
From the activity data, the chain continues to accrue revenue, with average transaction fees standing at $0.0005 since the 10x fee increase.
These fees are used to buy back APT and burn them, reducing the circulating supply. That is, 1523K APT were permanently burned in the last 30 days, a total of 1.7 million tokens since mainnet. Hence, the annualized burn rate is 1.8 million tokens, as per Aptos’s post on X.
Can APT’s price hold its gains?
On the charts, APT broke out for the second time from a descending trend channel. The altcoin had traded back into the pattern on the 25th of August after losing support at $0.576. It reversed at the mid-level of the channel, where it made a double bottom at $0.523.
Currently, APT is surging toward equalling August’s peak above $0.71. The RSI Divergence is supporting the projection, as it indicates bulls are still buying.
However, the Net Volume shows that about 340K APT were sold in the most recent session. This data hinted at weakening buyer momentum, even though the RSI was overbought.
Thus, a challenge existed at $0.65, which was a short-term resistance below $0.71.
What to expect from APT’s upcoming token unlocks?
Meanwhile, stronger bearish signals from routine unlocks could add to the mid-selling pressure.
As per Tokenomist, about 11.31 million APT worth $6.88 million would be added to the circulating supply in a week’s time. This amount was equivalent to 0.65% of the released supply.
Therefore, Aptos faces downside risk from the looming unlock, as this massive release dwarfs the small supply burned in a month.
Final Summary
- Aptos surged by over 10% as the altcoin priced in the burning of more than 152.9K APT tokens.
- APT broke out of the channel for the second time, but bulls are facing selling pressure in a week’s time.
